Oxford Economics recently opened its new Middle East office in Dubai, from where our economists Mohamed Bardastani and David Schockenhoff will lead our work with clients from across the region, in collaboration with colleagues from our global team in London, including our London-based Middle East economist Maya Senussi. (See biographies in Notes to Editors, below.)
As we mark the opening of the Middle East office at Dubai’s Jumeirah Lake Towers, we are pleased to unveil our 2018 forecast and outlook for the GCC economies, along with our latest regional research on sovereign risk within the GCC. Mohamed and Maya are available for interview to discuss both the outlook and the sovereign risk analysis with the region’s media.
Our 2018 GCC outlook - summary:
Mohamed Bardastani: Mohamed is responsible for forecasting the macroeconomic outlooks for several Middle Eastern economies, with specific focus on the GCC. He has joined OE after working as an Economist at the Central Bank of Bahrain for over three years, working in the Financial Stability and Economic Research Divisions and contributing to a variety of publications by the Central Bank of Bahrain. His main responsibilities entailed conducting economic research and analysing macroeconomic trends at the local, regional, and global level. Mohamed was educated at the University of Tampa, in the United States, where he gained a Bachelors degree in Economics; and at the University of New South Wales, Australia, where he completed his Master’s degree in Economics.
Maya Senussi: Maya is responsible for developing research views on the Middle East, including forecasting and monitoring a number of GCC economies. She joined OE having spent seven years working as a senior economist covering Emerging EMEA at Roubini Global Economics (RGE). Before joining RGE, Maya held several research roles, including for Control Risks in Dubai and London, AKE Group, Middle East Consultants International and the Embassy of Poland in Damascus. She is a graduate of King’s College, London, where she earned a Master’s degree in international peace and security, with a focus on contemporary security issues in the Middle East. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree with honours in Arabic and politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London.
David Schokenhoff: David works in our macro-consultancy team and is engaged in a variety of bespoke consultancy projects, including large-scale macroeconomic modelling and scenario projects. Recently, he assumed an integral role in the creation of detailed macro-economic models for Ghana and Saudi Arabia. Before joining Oxford Economics in 2015, David gained experience with Germany’s central bank, where he evaluated data for stress-testing scenarios and capital regulation projects, and with the Economics and Trade section of the UN Environment Programme. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and a BA in Economics from the University of St.Gallen.
Click here to read the full report in PDF format.
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Media contacts:
Mohamed Bardastani, Senior Economist – mbardastani@oxfordeconomics.com Tel: +971 55 368 1744 (Dubai)
Maya Senussi, Senior Economist – msenussi@oxfordeconomics.com Tel: +44 (0)20 3910 8121 (London)
Further media enquiries:
Gary Duncan, Director of Communications (Head of global media relations and PR):
gduncan@oxfordeconomics.com
Tel: +44 (0)20 3910 8025 | Mobile/Cell: 07788 155 715 (London)
About Oxford Economics:
Oxford Economics is one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Its best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools provide an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social, and business impact.
© Press Release 2017
As we mark the opening of the Middle East office at Dubai’s Jumeirah Lake Towers, we are pleased to unveil our 2018 forecast and outlook for the GCC economies, along with our latest regional research on sovereign risk within the GCC. Mohamed and Maya are available for interview to discuss both the outlook and the sovereign risk analysis with the region’s media.
Our 2018 GCC outlook - summary:
- After two difficult years including a tough 2017 where regional GDP growth is expected to come in at just 0.3%, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are set to enjoy their fastest expansion in three years in 2018. We forecast 2.7% growth for the region next year with all six GCC economies set to enjoy a relatively robust performance.
- Oman is set to lead the regional rebound, with forecast growth of 5% after a likely 2017 outcome of 0.2%. The UAE is meanwhile set to see its pace of growth almost double to a forecast 3.3% next year, after a likely 2017 outcome of 1.7%. Likewise, Qatar is projected to see its growth accelerate to 3.1% from a likely 1.3% for 2017. Bahrain is expected to match the likely 2017 pace of growth by again expanding by 1.8%. Saudi Arabia is meanwhile set to stage a revival from a 0.3% economic decline this year to grow by 2%.
- The regional revival comes as crude oil prices have picked up slightly and austerity is easing. But the GCC still faces significant headwinds.
- Regional inflation will rise and the US dollar peg means that the region will have to raise interest rates in tandem with the US Federal Reserve, reinforcing a still-restrictive fiscal policy stance. Ongoing political uncertainty in the region generally may also unsettle domestic and global investors.
- The economic outlook continues to vary across the GCC states and resilience is uneven. But weak external and fiscal positions leave Bahrain and Oman exposed to further credit rating downgrades.
Mohamed Bardastani: Mohamed is responsible for forecasting the macroeconomic outlooks for several Middle Eastern economies, with specific focus on the GCC. He has joined OE after working as an Economist at the Central Bank of Bahrain for over three years, working in the Financial Stability and Economic Research Divisions and contributing to a variety of publications by the Central Bank of Bahrain. His main responsibilities entailed conducting economic research and analysing macroeconomic trends at the local, regional, and global level. Mohamed was educated at the University of Tampa, in the United States, where he gained a Bachelors degree in Economics; and at the University of New South Wales, Australia, where he completed his Master’s degree in Economics.
Maya Senussi: Maya is responsible for developing research views on the Middle East, including forecasting and monitoring a number of GCC economies. She joined OE having spent seven years working as a senior economist covering Emerging EMEA at Roubini Global Economics (RGE). Before joining RGE, Maya held several research roles, including for Control Risks in Dubai and London, AKE Group, Middle East Consultants International and the Embassy of Poland in Damascus. She is a graduate of King’s College, London, where she earned a Master’s degree in international peace and security, with a focus on contemporary security issues in the Middle East. She also holds a Bachelor’s degree with honours in Arabic and politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London.
David Schokenhoff: David works in our macro-consultancy team and is engaged in a variety of bespoke consultancy projects, including large-scale macroeconomic modelling and scenario projects. Recently, he assumed an integral role in the creation of detailed macro-economic models for Ghana and Saudi Arabia. Before joining Oxford Economics in 2015, David gained experience with Germany’s central bank, where he evaluated data for stress-testing scenarios and capital regulation projects, and with the Economics and Trade section of the UN Environment Programme. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and a BA in Economics from the University of St.Gallen.
Click here to read the full report in PDF format.
-Ends-
Media contacts:
Mohamed Bardastani, Senior Economist – mbardastani@oxfordeconomics.com Tel: +971 55 368 1744 (Dubai)
Maya Senussi, Senior Economist – msenussi@oxfordeconomics.com Tel: +44 (0)20 3910 8121 (London)
Further media enquiries:
Gary Duncan, Director of Communications (Head of global media relations and PR):
gduncan@oxfordeconomics.com
Tel: +44 (0)20 3910 8025 | Mobile/Cell: 07788 155 715 (London)
About Oxford Economics:
Oxford Economics is one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Its best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools provide an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social, and business impact.
© Press Release 2017
