SINGAPORE: Goldman Sachs has raised its oil ​price forecasts ⁠for the fourth quarter to $90 a barrel for ‌Brent crude and $83 for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), on lower ​output from the Middle East.

"The economic risks are larger than ​our crude ​base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined ⁠product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock," GS analysts led by Daan Struyven said in an April 26 note.

* Forecast ​assumes a ‌normalization in ⁠Gulf exports ⁠through the Strait of Hormuz by end-June versus mid-May previously and ​a slower Gulf production recovery.

* GS ‌estimates 14.5 million barrels per ⁠day of Middle East crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11-12 million bpd pace in April.

* GS expects the global oil market to swing from a 1.8 million bpd 2025 surplus to a 9.6 million bpd Q2 2026 deficit.

* Global oil ‌demand expected to fall 1.7 million bpd ⁠in Q2, 100,000 bpd in 2026 ​on year given jump in refined product prices.

* "Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses ​could be ‌required if the supply shock persists longer," ⁠the analysts said. (Reporting ​by Florence Tan; Editing by Edmund Klamann)