Tunis - Protecting Tunisia's national economy and population from climate disruptions requires financing estimated at $ 29 billion for the period 2026-2035, accounting for 53% of the total financing needs of the Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), recently presented during a national debate organised by the National Forum of Adaptation to Climate Change (FNACC).

The largest share of adaptation financing needs regards the water sector ($10.7 billion), followed by agriculture and food ($8 billion).

Financing needs for capacity building, technology transfer and support for NDC 3.0 adaptation programmes are estimated at $1.85 billion.

According to this strategic document, Tunisia is bearing the full brunt of climate change effects, characterised by rising temperatures, declining rainfall and sea-level rise.

If the country does not urgently manage climate-related risks, according to the World Bank, the economy could contract by 3.4% in GDP terms by 2030 (nearly TND 5.6 billion, or $1.8 billion per year in net present value).

Annual losses due to water shortages, coastal erosion and flooding would reach 6.4% of GDP by 2050, equivalent to TND 10.4 billion ($3.4 billion) in net present value.

Consequently, the agricultural sector would be particularly affected, with its value added expected to drop 15% by 2030 (and 29% by 2050).

A decline in agricultural production would reduce net exports, while imports would increase to bridge the supply-demand gap.

As a result, the current account deficit would deteriorate by more than 6% by 2030. This would exacerbate Tunisia's already fragile external balance.

Furthermore, by 2030, the poverty rate would rise to 21.3%, equivalent to a 1.5 percentage point increase compared with the baseline scenario.

NDC 3.0: Seven priority axes to strengthen resilience to climate change

Faced with these challenges, NDC 3.0 adopts an approach aligned with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), aiming to transform vulnerability into sustainable resilience by 2035.

This vision is structured around seven priority axes: rigorous management of water resources aimed at equitable access through the use of non-conventional waters, such as desalination and wastewater reuse.

In parallel, the agriculture, fisheries and food security sector focuses on using resilient seeds, digitalisation and direct support for smallholders.

Under this strategy, Tunisia also commits to protecting its ecosystems and biodiversity, notably forests, oases and wetlands, to maintain their vital services.

It will furthermore endeavour to strengthen the health system against climate risks (heatwaves, vector-borne diseases, etc.).

Regarding infrastructure, NDC 3.0 sets as objectives the protection of coastal areas against erosion and the integration of climate risks into urban planning.

NDC 3.0 also incorporates safeguarding cultural heritage and ancestral knowledge, such as "Charfia" fishing or "Ramli" agriculture, for their significant adaptive value.

All these combined measures aim to improve livelihoods and combat poverty through regional development focused on creating green jobs.

Concurrently with the adaptation efforts intended by NDC 3.0, national priorities also centre on enhancing monitoring and evaluation systems, integrating climate risk into development planning, deploying innovative insurance and compensation mechanisms, and building institutional and local capacities.

Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are national climate action plans developed by each country within the framework of the Paris Agreement.

A country's NDC describes how it plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to contribute to achieving the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

The Paris Agreement requires that NDCs be updated every five years with increasing ambition, taking into account each country's capacities.

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