The recent pastoralist–farmer tensions reported in Kitui County, Kenya, are a powerful reminder that climate security is no longer an abstract policy debate.

 

As drought conditions intensify in traditionally arid areas, herders are being forced to move farther in search of pasture and water, creating new migratory routes across counties once outside seasonal grazing patterns.

In Kitui, the movement of livestock into farming zones has heightened tensions over crops, land use and access to scarce resources. It is a local story with a regional meaning: climate change is reshaping mobility, livelihoods and security across the Horn of Africa.

The Horn of Africa remains one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, battered by droughts, floods and heatwaves.

These extreme weather events are no longer isolated environmental shocks; they are part of a growing climate–conflict–migration nexus threatening the security, livelihoods and stability of millions. It is a daily reality disrupting economies, straining governance institutions and unsettling social systems.

Over the past decade, the region has become a hotspot for repeated climate shocks. Severe flooding struck during the March–May rainy seasons of 2018, 2020 and 2024, as well as later seasonal rains in 2019, 2023 and 2024.

These floods often followed prolonged droughts, including the devastating 2020–2023 drought – the worst in 70 years.

Across the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) region, the drought caused the loss of more than 13 million livestock. In Kenya alone, the government estimated the economic cost of livestock loss at more than $1.5 billion.

Human tollThe humanitarian toll is staggering. The region finds itself caught in a convergence of crises, where conflict collides with climate shocks while economic fragility feeds political instability – a vicious cycle in which, when one system fails, others inevitably follow.

In 2025, an estimated 42 million people across six Igad member states – Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda – faced high levels of acute food insecurity, while over three million children required lifesaving treatment for severe acute malnutrition.

The scale of the crisis reflects a long-term deterioration: in five countries with comparable data since 2016 – Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda – the number of people in crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) has tripled, from 13.9 million in 2016 to 41.7 million in 2025.

Not only has climate change worsened food security in the region, it has also severely affected human mobility.

In 2023, across the Horn of Africa, at least 31.9 million people were in urgent need of life-saving and life-sustaining assistance due to the most prolonged and severe drought in recent history.

Families took desperate measures to survive, with more than 2.7 million people leaving their homes due to drought in search of food, pasture, water and alternative livelihoods, increasing the risk of inter-communal conflict, as well as heightening pressure on already limited basic services.

In the years after the drought, disaster displacement across the Horn of Africa remains severe, driven by the compounding effects of floods and prolonged drought.

Kenya recorded 314,000 flood displacements in 2024, while insufficient rains left nearly 757,000 people displaced in Ethiopia and over 733,000 in Somalia at year’s end – unable to return home after years of drought.

South Sudan recorded 423,000 flood displacements in 2024, frequently forcing people already uprooted by conflict to flee again.

Conflict link

These numbers illustrate the drivers of the climate security nexus. Climate change does not automatically cause conflict, but it acts as a risk multiplier.

When drought destroys crops and pasture, households lose income, hunger rises, and people move in search of survival. Competition over water, pasture and arable land intensifies tensions between neighbouring communities in pastoral borderlands stretching across the region.

Somalia demonstrates the security impact of drought. Recurrent dry spells have devastated livestock holdings and pushed rural families into urban centres and displacement camps.

Displacement is not only the movement of people – it is the disruption of dignity, livelihoods and hope. Water scarcity has intensified local competition, while armed groups have exploited hardship, weak governance and population movement.

In fragile borderland areas, the combination of insecurity, poor services and climate stress has made recovery far more difficult.

Flooding presents a different but equally serious risk. In South Sudan, severe floods in recent years have submerged villages, roads, schools and farmland, displacing communities for prolonged periods.

Families forced onto shrinking areas of dry land often face heightened tensions over shelter, fishing grounds, grazing areas and humanitarian aid. Floodwaters also cut off state services and humanitarian access, deepening grievances and vulnerability.

Gender impactClimate insecurity also has a strong gender dimension. When water and firewood become scarce, women and girls often travel longer distances, increasing exposure to harassment and violence.

Displacement can heighten risks of exploitation, early marriage and interrupted education for girls.

As household incomes fall, unpaid care burdens rise, and women frequently absorb the shock of food shortages while having a limited voice in decision-making. Any serious climate security response must therefore place women’s protection, leadership and economic inclusion at its centre.

Regional responseThat is why regional cooperation matters. Igad member states share ecosystems, trade routes, migration corridors and deep social ties across borders. Their economies are linked through livestock markets, transport corridors and cross-border commerce.

Shared vulnerabilities require shared solutions. Through coordinated strategies, countries can harmonise policies, pool resources and strengthen resilience together rather than acting in isolation.

The Igad heads of state and government in June 2023 responded through the establishment of the Igad Climate Security Mechanism to help member states anticipate, prevent and mitigate climate-induced conflict and displacement.

The mechanism links early warning, conflict prevention, research and policy coordination. It recognises that inter-ministerial and inter-agency cooperation is imperative: ministries of environment, security institutions, humanitarian agencies, development partners and communities must work together.

The region needs common policies on cross-border mobility, shared water resources, disaster preparedness, migration governance and climate-resilient trade.

Practical cooperation should include joint early warning systems for droughts and floods, stronger weather and climate observation networks, transboundary resource management agreements and collaborative peacebuilding initiatives.

Continental voiceAs the Addis Ababa Declaration warns, Africa stands at a crossroads where climate and human insecurity are converging.

A united continental voice can strengthen Africa’s influence in multilateral negotiations and ensure that international frameworks reflect African priorities such as adaptation, resilience, food security and just energy transitions. A common African position is no longer optional; it is a strategic necessity.

Media roleThe media has a central role in this agenda. Media houses should go beyond covering disasters after they occur. They should investigate climate risks, explain how environmental stress affects livelihoods and security, and hold leaders accountable for commitments made.

Good journalism can make complex policy debates understandable and ensure local voices are heard. The media must report not only disasters, but the decisions that made them worse – or could make them better.

Policy shiftPolicymakers must also stop treating climate policy as separate from economic policy or national security. Investments in resilience are investments in peace and stability. Ignoring climate risks guarantees higher security costs.

The climate security nexus is not a future threat. It is a present reality. No border fence can stop drought, floods or hunger.

Regional cooperation is cheaper than a regional crisis. Without coordinated action, the Horn of Africa risks a cycle of climate shocks, conflict and displacement that undermines development gains.

But with stronger African leadership, effective regional cooperation and credible global support, shared risks can be transformed into opportunities for collective resilience, peace and prosperity.

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