GEMS Education is seeing a slight dip in student registrations at its United Arab Emirates schools as uncertainty tied to ​the Iran war weighs on relocations, its CEO said, while expressing confidence in long-term demand and growth next year.

The international private education provider has ​secured ​90% of its targeted new sales so far, including new registrations and re-enrollments, for the coming academic year, CEO Dino Varkey told Reuters.

That is a couple of percentage points below last year, reflecting fewer families moving to ⁠Dubai from overseas, he added.

"It's still very much a growth scenario. Just maybe the velocity has been dialed down a little bit. But again, I hope we're surprised on the upside, Varkey said, noting enrollments will continue until the end of September.

"Once we have really clear resolution in relation to the conflict, I actually expect a lot of families to look ​back on their decisions and ‌frankly choose to ⁠move over here," he added.

Dubai's ⁠population has surged in double digits in recent years as foreigners, many higher-income earners, came to the Gulf's business and tourism hub, lured ​by generous tax policies and a convenient time zone. T

he emirate aims to grow to ‌5.8 million residents by 2040 from around 4 million people now and is ⁠investing in new infrastructure to accommodate that expansion. Its population stood at 3.4 million by the end of 2020.

CONFLICT INTERRUPTS RELOCATIONS

Airspace disruptions and heightened regional security risks have forced temporary school closures and a shift to remote learning in the height of the conflict, testing the immediate appeal for families considering a move.

The Knowledge and Human Development Authority, which regulates private education in Dubai, said last month there would be no tuition fee increases for the coming academic year to support families.

At the peak of the conflict in March, about 1,500 to 1,600 GEMS students - roughly 1% to 1.5% of its base - relocated to their home countries, Varkey said.

Since then, 600 to 700 of those students and families have ‌indicated plans to return.

Global political developments "haven't fundamentally changed our long-term ambition, strategy, and ⁠aspiration for what we want to do in the UAE," he said, adding ​that the company still expects to grow next year.

GEMS Education operates 45 schools in the UAE with 146,000 students. It also has a presence in Qatar and Egypt.

Under a more than $540 million investment in the next three years, it plans to add around 20,000 ​additional spaces in ‌the UAE, with the first 5,000 coming in September, Varkey said.

The plan will be ⁠funded with internal cash flows, alongside potential partnerships with ​property funds to develop school infrastructure.

($1 = 3.6730 UAE dirham)

(Reporting by Federico Maccioni, Editing by Louise Heavens)