The United Arab Emirates is likely to raise output plans which would be much higher than its OPEC+ quota, consultancy Energy Aspects said in a note on Monday.

* "A big rise in Murban exports (caused by the UAE ignoring its OPEC+ commitments) and meagre Chinese crude buying have dealt a double blow to oil bulls," it said.

* The producer group includes members of the OPEC+, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil powers including Russia, who together pledged to make record cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in May to counter a supply glut during the novel coronavirus pandemic.

* Spot crude exports from the UAE have risen materially since July, in part due to a combination of destocking from tanks that had filled up during the April production surge and lower domestic refinery runs, the consultancy added.

* "Our sources suggest the UAE's output plan for October will be a massive 0.9 mb/d higher than its quota."

* If these plans are realised, global crude stockdraws may be 0.6 mb/d lower than their current forecast at 1 mb/d on average from July through October, the consultancy added.

* The UAE's undercompliance seems to explain why physical crude markets have been consistently weaker than implied by most balances (including ours), it added.

* Data shows among OPEC members, the United Arab Emirates, which made additional voluntary cuts in June, overproduced by around 50,000 bpd over the May-July period.

(Reporting by Shreyansi Singh in Bengaluru; editing by Grant McCool) ((Shreyansi.Singh@thomsonreuters.com; +91 8061823666/3590 (If within U.S. call +1 646 223 8780); Reuters Messaging: Shreyansi.Singh@thomsonreuters.com))