PARIS- Consultancy Strategie Grains on Thursday raised its monthly forecast for the 2021 soft wheat harvest and exports from the European Union next season due to improved competitiveness on the world market but lowered them for the current season.
It also lifted its EU 2021 barley and maize crop outlook, supported by good weather conditions.
"Since last month, our forecast for EU-27 soft wheat exports has increased by 1.6 million tonnes to reflect the very good competitiveness of Bulgarian and Romanian wheats and, to a lesser extent, Baltic, German and Polish wheats on early 2021/22 contracts," Strategie Grains said, and given the uplift applied to global import needs since last month.
Strategie Grains expects 2021 EU soft wheat production at 131.1 million tonnes, up from 129.6 million in May and 119.4 million last year.
EU soft wheat exports in 2021/22 were now pegged at 28.6 million tonnes, up from 27.0 million projected last month.
That was now well above the 26.9 million tonnes EU wheat exports projected for this season, an estimate that was lowered by 600,000 tonnes this month. The consultancy did not give a reason for the change.
For barley, Strategie Grains lifted its estimate for the 2021 EU harvest by 300,000 tonnes to 53.9 million tonnes.
It slightly raised its forecast of EU maize production by 100,000 tonnes to 65.3 million tonnes.
"The start of the maize development cycle was sluggish but plant growth is now taking place amid good conditions almost everywhere," it said.
TABLE-Strategie Grains estimates for EU-27 cereal crops.
(Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide; editing by David Evans) ((Sybille.deLaHamaide@thomsonreuters.com; +336 8774 4148;))