Global geopolitical tensions and a rise in food insecurity and poverty will continue to negatively weigh on the Middle East and Africa (MEA) economies, according to London-based data and analytics firm GlobalData.


In its latest “Global Risk Report Quarterly Update – Q4 2022,” which evaluated 56 countries in the MEA region, two countries were identified in the very low risk zone, four countries in the low-risk zone, 11 countries under manageable risk, 21 countries under high risk and 18 countries in the very high-risk zone.

Out of 153 nations, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Mauritania, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Congo, Burundi, Chad, Libya, Mozambique, Yemen, and Syria countries from the MEA region were in the list of top 15 highest risk nations in the latest update.

“The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production can impact the profitability of oil-producing nations in the MEA region, which rely heavily on oil exports to drive their economies,” said Bindi Patel, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData.

At the same time, many countries in the MEA region are heavily dependent on food imports, and disruptions to food supply chains due to factors such as the conflict in Ukraine and Syria, drought in Horn of African nations and Kenya continue to create significant challenges for food security, she added.

According to GlobalData, the MEA region has been severely affected by supply chain disruptions and the consequent rise in prices of essential commodities such as food and fuel due to heavy reliance on Russia and Ukraine for imports of staple food items.

The region is also grappling with persistent challenges such as social unrest, food insecurity, and mounting debt. As a result, the region’s risk score has increased from 54 to 54.3 out of 100 in the Q4 2022 update.

Patel expected the inflation level in the MEA region to remain “alarmingly high”, with only a marginal decrease projected despite the implementation of tighter monetary policies.

The inflation rate in the region is estimated to be 18.7% in 2023, with exceptionally high rates anticipated in Egypt (23.3%), Iran (40.7%), Turkey (43.7%), and Nigeria (19.3%), she noted.

(Editing by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com )