Kenya retains control over sugar import volumes from Comesa member states despite exiting the bloc’s 24-year protectionist regime.

The US Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), in a report dated April 6, 2026, said Nairobi still regulates imports through licensing.

In November 2025, Kenya ended its long-standing Comesa sugar safeguards, shifting to a duty-free regime for Comesa and East African Community (EAC) partners.“Sugar from non-Comesa countries still face a 100 percent tariff, unless the government requests a waiver under the EAC customs protocol due to local shortages,” FAS said.

Controlled liberalisationRetail sugar prices are expected to decline in the early months of the 2026/2027 marketing year, which begins in May, driven by a rebound in domestic production and improved cane availability.“This downward trend is expected to level off as duty-free imports from Comesa bridge any remaining supply gap,” the agency said.

Retail prices fell to Ksh166.56 ($1.28) per kilogramme in March 2026, from Ksh185.20 ($1.42) in September 2025, largely due to the removal of safeguard measures.“These retail prices are also heavily influenced by the raw material costs set by the Cane Pricing Committee, a regulatory body composed of government officials, millers and growers. This committee has maintained the cane purchase price at Ksh5,500 ($42.30) per tonne since May 2025, providing a predictable cost base for the industry.”In March, retail sugar averaged Ksh166,560 ($1,280) per tonne, while wholesale prices stood at Ksh156,000 ($1,200) per tonne. Cane purchase prices remained at Ksh5,500 ($42.30) per tonne.

Import shiftFAS projects a structural shift in Kenya’s sugar market in the 2026/2027 marketing year, with imports expected to fall to 370,000 tonnes from 510,000 tonnes in 2025/2026. The decline reflects a recovery in domestic output, supported by sector reforms and improved milling capacity.“While imports remain consistently higher than the previous year, a defining shift in the market occurred after December 2025, after Kenya exited the long-standing Comesa sugar safeguards on November 30, allowing for less restrictive regional trade,” the agency said.

Retail prices recorded their sharpest month-on-month drop in nearly two years in February, following the opening of the market to cheaper regional supplies.

Prices fell 4.37 percent to Ksh166.56 ($1.29) per kilogramme in February, from Ksh174.17 ($1.35) in January, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). This was the steepest monthly decline in 22 months.

The decline extended a downward trend that began in late 2025, pushing prices to their lowest level in 11 months.

Legacy shieldSince 2001, Kenya had relied on Comesa safeguards—renewed eight times—to protect its high-cost domestic sugar industry.

Under the arrangement, Kenya could import up to 350,000 tonnes annually from Comesa to bridge supply deficits.

Most imports originated from Mauritius, Uganda, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, India, Brazil, Thailand and Eswatini.

Through June 30, 2026, Kenya is also operating an EAC-approved duty waiver window for industrial sugar. Ten beverage and confectionery firms have been authorised to import 208,600 tonnes at a reduced duty of 10 percent.

FAS forecasts a 40.5 percent increase in sugar production in the 2026/2027 marketing year to 850,000 tonnes, up from 605,000 tonnes in 2025/2026. The rebound is linked to expanded harvested area and relaxed government restrictions.

The harvested area is projected to rise to 193,000 hectares from 150,000 hectares, as more estates reach full maturity.“The restored Kenya Sugar Board boosted the enforcement of local crop calendars to stop early harvesting of cane, a habit that formerly lowered yields. About 3,000 hectares will be in newly opened cultivation areas,” FAS said.

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