Not surprisingly, the internationally backed peace plan for Syria is collapsing. Rather than effecting a ceasefire, the regime escalated the crisis and continued to kill people and laid down new conditions for pulling out troops from the restive cities.
Given that Assad has exploited every minute to crack down on protesters and that he does not have any intention of defusing the crisis, the question is who will stop him? Is there anyone who has the stomach for tougher moves against Assad? So far the United States has been reluctant to step up pressure on Assad. And yet, the international community should not sit idly by while the Syrian troops' onslaught is continuing unabated.
Assad is not expected to change his attitude without the international community reconsidering some more aggressive alternatives. Some military strategies argue that measures such as pinpoint airstrikes on Syrian artillery coupled with imposing a no-fly zone would constitute a price tag that would force Assad to rethink his security approach.
Obviously, the economic sanctions have hurt the regime but not enough to affect his policy in dealing with protesters. For Assad, as long as the opposition is divided and poorly armed and as long as his regime is in control, Assad will continue his attack. Additionally, he will use any peace efforts to buy time to suppress the rebels. Despite the deterioation of the situation in Syria, Assad has so far been in a better situation compared to the opposition.
Moscow seems to have run out of patience with the regime's iron-fist approach and may push for some new moves. For Russia, the time might be ripe for Russian pressure to gain Assad's compliance with some of the international community's demands. Failure to respond positively to any Russian demands will be detrimental to the regime's strategy of buying time while enjoying the protection of great powers such as Russia. Previously, it was Moscow's veto that saved Assad twice from a harsh resolution by the UN Security Council.
The new Russian position came after Putin secured the presidency. Therefore, it seems that Moscow's position is genuine and Assad will do himself a huge favor if he takes this into account. Its support of Annan's plan is both wise and right.
In his meeting with his Syrian counterpart a few days ago, Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, mad it perfectly clear that Damascus should comply fully with the Annan Plan. He told his Syrian counterpart that Syria must begin pulling out its troops and heavy weaponry from cities. "We told our Syrian colleagues that we think their actions could be more active, more decisive in regard to the fulfillment of the points of the plan," he said.
On the other hand, the opposition accepted the internationally backed plan. Yet, they turned down the regime's demand for a written guarantee that the opposition would lay down arms. However, Kofi Annan dismissed the Syrian regime's preconditions for ending violence. In his meeting with Turkish officials a few days ago, he insisted that Syria fulfill its commitments and the terms of the truce plan. On Tuesday, Annan sent the UN Security Council a letter expressing his deep concerns about the continuation of violence.
"The prevailing security and human rights situation is unacceptable," he said.
The overall situation of Syria cannot be more striking. On the one hand, the international community realizes that Assad is unlikely to comply with any international efforts to halt the violence. On the other hand the international community realizes that Assad is untrustworthy. And yet, the Syrian people continue paying the unbearable price for this trap.
For the time being, the Arabs should do more to unite the deeply divided opposition. It really is hard to conceal the differences among the opposition. In other words, they are not helping their cases and here is where some key Arab states should step in. The opposition must be told that the Arabs' support is not a blank check and it is conditional upon their ability to get their act together. This may be the only way for the Arabs to make the case internationally for the Syrian people.
As important as it may be, Annan's plan failed. The cover that Assad gained over the last week is quickly coming to an end. Therefore, the momentum should be kept to put a price tag on Assad's unremitting evasiveness.
© Arab News 2012
