How Dubai Metro's Route 2020 will impact property prices, rents

They believe that rates will rise in the medium to long term but not in the short term due to oversupply in the market.

Dubai earlier this month inaugurated Route 2020, a 15km extension to the Dubai Metro's Red Line, linking Jebel Ali, Discovery Gardens, Al Furjan, Jumeirah Golf Estate, Dubai Investment Park and the Expo 2020 site. Route 2020 will have seven stations and will serve communities populated by 270,000 people.

Historically, areas up to 15 minutes of walk to a Metro station tend to outperform the wider market, says Taimur Khan, research manager at Knight Frank.

"We have seen that if you have a development in a five-minute distance of a Dubai Metro station, the market increased 51 per cent between 2010 to 2018, and if they are in 10-minute walk, they increased by 58 per cent, and 33 per cent for a 15 minute walk," Khan said.

He noted that these five areas will see quite significant demand.

Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of of f?m Properties, doesn't expect property prices to increase on Route 2020 areas in the short term, but occupancy will increase.

"Areas connected to Metro 2020 will become more favourable than before. Also, it is something that landlords will look forward to to have a property. I don't see any rental and price increase because macro fundamentals don't show any sign of rental or price rise in the short term, which is a good thing because Dubai will become more affordable than ever before and attracting tenants from different emirates as well," Al Msaddi

"In the medium to long= term, Metro 2020 will definitely help increase both rents and prices. Rentals as well as sale price are very much inter-related worldwide, especially in Dubai. If rents go down, sales prices tend to follow because price impacts rate of return that one generates out of the rent," he added.

Rentals

Khan said rentals near Metro areas have outperformed the wider market. Rents in the wider market fell 11 per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the same period in 2018, whereas locations within five to 15 minutes of metro locations saw rents increasing 1.8 per cent over the same period.

"Locations near Metro stations tend to hold prices better. Since 2014, which is the top year of the market, the broader rental market went down 11 per cent while building within 15 minutes walks of metro station rents increased 1.8 or 2 per cent. That is quite a difference," added Khan.

"I don't think rents will necessary go up in these Route 2020 areas but will be a bit more resilient because there is a lot more pressure on the market at this time as a lot of supply is coming. Rents are going down about 10 per cent which we haven't seen for a long time. These communities linked to Route 2020 are at early stages and it takes time for the community to build it," he added.