The pace of residential capital value declines in Dubai slowed further in June 2026, suggesting market calibration, while transaction volumes rebounded significantly month-on-month. The Dubai Residential ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) declined to 220 points, reflecting a softer monthly fall of 1% compared to previous months. This brings the cumulative drop in property values since the onset of the conflict on February 28th to 10%. However, overall annual growth remained broadly stable at 0.1%. Benchmark values eased to 293.7 points for villas and 169.1 points for apartments (Jan 2021 = 100).

Haider Tuaima, Managing Director and Head of Real Estate Research at ValuStrat, said: “June’s data highlights a vital shift in market dynamics, characterised by a softer 1% price decline running alongside a powerful resurgence in transactional activity. Capital values have registered a cumulative 10% adjustment since late February, yet the deceleration in monthly losses suggests the market is navigating the initial shock. More importantly, a major month-on-month surge of 46.8% in ready property sales, marking the strongest monthly growth in three years, indicates that capital adjustments are successfully unlocking pent-up investor demand.”

Villas vs apartments: Villa growth slows to 2% while apartment index drops 3%

annually Villa capital values declined 1.2% month-on-month, causing annual growth to slow down to 2%. The strongest yearly gains within the villa segment were concentrated in Jumeirah Islands (17.9%), Emirates Hills (10.7%), The Meadows (10%), The Villa (7.8%), and Reem (5.7%). By contrast, annual corrections were observed in Mudon (-5%), Victory Heights (-4%), International City (-3.2%), and Dubai Hills Estate (-2.8%). None of the monitored villa communities tracked by the VPI posted monthly gains during June. Currently, Dubai's older freehold villa communities are, on average, valued 188% above post-pandemic levels and 76% above the 2014 market peak.

Apartment values edged down 0.6% month-on-month in June, leaving the apartment VPI 3% lower than the same period last year. The top annual apartment gainers included DIFC (8.1%), Dubai Sports City (6.6%), Dubai Silicon Oasis (6.4%), and Al Quoz Fourth (6%). Conversely, the sharpest annual contractions were felt in Burj Khalifa ( 16.7%), Jumeirah Beach Residence (-13%), and Town Square (-5.7%). International City Phase 2 (0.1%) was the only community to record a monthly marginal gain. Overall, older freehold apartment prices remain 70% above post pandemic levels but sit 8% below the previous market peak recorded in 2014.

Transactions: Sales volumes rebound sharply month-on-month

In a strong reversal from recent contractions, buyer activity rose significantly over the month. Ready-home transactions increased by 46.8% month-on-month, marking the strongest monthly rise recorded in three years, although overall volumes remained 23% lower year-on-year.

Oqood registrations for off-plan properties also climbed, rising 32% month-on-month, though remaining 16% lower annually. Off-plan sales continued to dominate market activity, accounting for 75% of all residential sales. Recorded official transactions for the month likely reflect underlying deals agreed from March 2026 onwards. Top off-plan locations were led by Azizi Venice (26.1%), followed by City of Arabia (5%), and Dubailand Residence Complex (4.3%). Ready property transactions were heavily clustered in Jumeirah Village Circle (11%), Jebel Ali Village (7%), and Business Bay (5.7%).

Prime homes: Luxury sales remain active and firmly concentrated

Despite broader shifts across mainstream market segments, the top-tier luxury segment maintained its steady performance. A total of 19 ready-property transactions exceeded AED 30 million in June, which included 5 high value deals priced above the AED 50 million threshold. These ultra-prime sales remained tightly concentrated within established luxury destinations, specifically Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Hills Estate, Emirates Hills, Al Barari, Jumeirah Islands, Downtown Dubai, and DIFC.

About VPI:

The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) regularly marks to market a sample of properties that represent more than 90% of the Dubai residential and commercial markets and is built by our expert RICS Registered Valuers. ValuStrat Price Index offers a current read on market conditions because it is valuation-based rather than transaction-driven. While Dubai Land Department data reflects transactions that can lag as deals are agreed weeks or months earlier, VPI captures where the market stands today by incorporating real-time feedback from active participants. This makes it more responsive to shifts in sentiment and pricing trends.

To learn more about ValuStrat's real estate research outputs, please visit ValuStrat's Insights Webpage.

About ValuStrat:

ValuStrat is an international consulting group providing Advisory, Valuations, Research, Transaction Advisory, Due Diligence, and Industrial Consulting across multiple sectors. With 45+ years of experience, a network of 17 offices in five countries, and a client base of 1,000+ organisations, ValuStrat supports governments, financial institutions, corporates, and SMEs.

The firm is one of the oldest valuation practices in the Middle East, a preferred provider to 120+ financial institutions in EMEA. It is ranked in the top category by the Dubai Land Department (DLD) and the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA). Its consulting services in Strategy, M&A, Real Estate, and Banking have been recognised by Consultancy ME for two consecutive years.

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