• China’s rise juxtaposed against waning American influence

  • Dr Ian Bremmer highlights social media, political populism, US political system as reasons behind trend

Dubai-UAE:– The emergence of China as an alternative to American leadership in the global market is the biggest mega trend for 2018, noted Dr Ian Bremmer, leading political scientist and President of Eurasia Group, at the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai today.

At a session themed ‘Mega Trends in 2018’, Dr Bremmer compared Chinese state control of the economy to the polarization and populism that is currently affecting political systems in America and Europe. He underlined the significance of the situation through highlighting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech at the 19thCommunist Party Congress in 2017 as one of the two biggest political speeches in his lifetime, comparable to Mikhail Gorbachev’s declaration of the end of the Soviet Union back in 1991.

Discussing the emergence of a strong China at a time of ‘America First’ and US President Donald Trump’s isolationist policy on climate control, trade and other global issues, Dr Bremmer said: “Xi Jinping’s speech was the first time in the modern era that a Chinese leader had stood up and said: ‘We are ready to lead. We are not too small or poor, we are prepared to be a superpower.’ In a world where we don’t have a leader in the fields of trade or politics, this is a big deal. The Trump presidency provides more space for China to play the role it is already playing.  China’s ability to say ‘We have a strong model’ – that’s the biggest trend out there.”

Although China’s GDP accounts for only 62 percent of the US GDP, Dr Bremmer explained how central Beijing control reinforces the country’s position and encourages more alignment from other countries.

He said: “Don’t underestimate the government of China leading the world in robotics and artificial intelligence on the one hand and ‘inefficient labor’ on the other – this will create long-term stability. The Chinese model is not to be emulated, but more countries will align because China is prepared to write the cheques, it is prepared to build the architecture, and back these up with its economy and technology.”

In addition to the strengthening of China’s position compared to a waning US position, Dr Bremmer identified the ‘real-time social experiment’ of smartphones, technology and social media as a crucial trend dominating the contemporary world.

He said: “Things are going to get much more immersive with augmented reality for our next generation, and we can’t stop it. The reason why it is so important is because in the West, companies are in control. It’s not Washington. It’s Facebook and the tech companies based in the US. The American companies in the West want us to be better consumers - liking, seeing and buying - using our phones. In China, it is the government in control. Yes, China wants you to buy as well, but it wants you to be aligned with what it believes in. And I argue that this tech revolution will make China more stable.”

Dr Bremmer pointed out the strategic importance of defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to US interests in the past, and compared those companies to the new big players such as Facebook. He said: “In the past, these were strategic assets, but in the next 10 years, compared to companies such as Google and Facebook, the ability of the US government will be near zero. They are not aligned, they don’t like each other, and the government doesn’t fully understand the emerging technologies.”

Speaking about the era of the Trump presidency, Dr Bremmer explained how a lack of real improvement for working and middle classes was having a big impact on the political climate. Pointing out Trump’s strong stance and positioning on trade policy, he said: “Look at the intangibles, such as values – can the US lead in soft power? It was already ebbing away, this has been happening for a while. We used to go around the world and tell everyone how to reform. For the first time in my life, I honestly believe that the US political system is in greater need of structural reform than the Chinese system. Other countries might not want to be China, but they will see it as a viable alternative, and that’s a game changer.”

-Ends-

About Arab Strategy Forum 
The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) is a premier global platform that convenes world leaders and strategic decision-makers from the public and private sector to exchange insights on geopolitical trends that impact the world today. Held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, the annual event features panel discussions and expert-led thought sessions, revolving around the state of the world and the state of the Arab world.

Aimed at enabling participants to make informed decisions, navigate risks, and leverage short- and long-term opportunities, the forum analyzes the current Arab and global political and economic landscape, examines conflicts and possible resolutions, and highlights events that are set to leave a lasting global impact. 

© Press Release 2017