Tunis - Recent economic statistics reveal that Tunisia is seeing a relative slowdown in inflation, with the overall consumer price index stabilising at around 5% in March 2026, compared with 7% during the same period the previous year.

However, this statistical improvement has not had a tangible impact on the citizens' purchasing power.

The consumption basket reveals persistent pressures on essential sectors (goods and services meeting consumers' primary needs).

Food prices thus recorded an increase of about 7.8% in March, compared with 7% in February, while restaurant, café and hotel services continued to display high rates reaching 11.7%, remaining among the most inflationary components of the general index.

Conversely, price stability recorded in other groups of goods and services has helped curb the acceleration of the inflation rate, reflecting an overall improvement without, however, concretely alleviating the cost of living borne by households.

According to experts, the slowdown in the upward trend of prices does not mean their decline, but rather indicates a slower pace of increase, which limits the impact of the improvement seen in the overall indicators on the citizens' daily lives.

In this connection, economic expert Maher Belhadj estimated that this paradox stems mainly from consumer perception. The latter does not compare the current situation to recent monthly or annual variations, but to price levels practised years ago.

The previous inflationary wave led to the accumulation of massive increases, such that any slowdown in the inflation rate remains barely perceptible as long as prices remain high.

Furthermore, improvement in inflation does not automatically lead to an improvement in purchasing power unless wages rise in tandem; hence the importance of ensuring a balance between prices and incomes, which is one of the key socio-economic challenges.

In a statement to TAP, Belhadj argued that improving purchasing power does not depend solely on curbing inflation, but also requires a series of parallel reforms, notably a reduction in the tax burden on various categories of consumers, particularly the middle class and wage earners, for whom the rate of tax on gross annual income reaches 40% in some cases, thereby restricting their capacity to consume and save.

He added that people's lack of perception that inflation is stabilising is due to no significant wage increases in 2025 and 2026.

On another note, distribution channels remain one of the main factors driving up prices, due to the proliferation of intermediaries between producers and consumers, as well as the associated monopolistic practices and speculation.

The prevalence of cash payments makes it more difficult to track commercial transactions and enforce controls, given the lack of sufficient transparency.

Consequently, the expert considered that the coming period requires accelerating the pace of wage increases to a level exceeding inflation, alongside reform of the distribution system, whilst reducing the tax burden on households, in order to contribute to a tangible and sustainable improvement in purchasing power.

In this regard, Head of State Kais Saied underlined that improving citizens’ living conditions is an absolute national priority, stressing the need to adopt concrete measures to bolster their purchasing power.

During the ceremony, held on April 6, commemorating the 26th anniversary of the death of former President Habib Bourguiba, Saied announced pay rises in the public and private sectors as well as increases in pensions.

The President of the Republic pointed out that these increases are intended to enable citizens to cope with the rising cost of living and to meet their basic needs.

He also reiterated the State’s commitment to raising the necessary financial resources to implement these decisions as part of a social policy aimed at alleviating poverty.

/ /Prudent monetary policy in light of external pressures shaping Tunisia’s inflation trajectory

On the monetary front, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) has continued to adopt a prudent monetary policy, keeping the key interest rate at 7%, in order to maintain a balance between curbing inflation and supporting economic activity.

However, the scope to control prices remains limited, given that a considerable proportion of inflation is import-driven, particularly in relation to energy and basic foodstuffs, which makes the Tunisian economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global markets.

For Tunisia, which is heavily dependent on food and energy imports, these developments mean that the trajectory of domestic inflation remains largely tied to external factors.

Furthermore, international data indicate that pressure on global food prices is persisting. The Food Price Index of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reached around 127.1 points in March 2026, an annual increase of about 6.9%, mainly due to rising prices for wheat, dairy products and meat.

Energy markets also remain exposed to geopolitical fluctuations, with forecasts indicating relative stability in oil prices in 2026 against a backdrop of high risks related to global supply trends.

For Tunisia, which is heavily dependent on food and energy imports, these developments mean that the trajectory of domestic inflation remains largely linked to external factors, the BCT said in a statement issued following the meeting of its board of directors held on March 30, 2026.

Overall, the indicators show that Tunisia has moved from a phase of rising inflation to a phase of slowing inflation, but has not yet reached the level of price stability deemed appropriate.

The main challenge of the next phase, Belhaj explained, will not be simply to continue easing inflation, but to turn this slowdown into a real improvement in purchasing power.

//Supporting citizens’ purchasing power and containing prices: priorities for the next phase

The government is continuing to implement its economic programme focused on price regulation and ensuring market stability.

This approach is primarily based on the regular supply of basic commodities by building up strategic stocks, strengthening control measures to combat speculation, and reforming and organising distribution channels.

The government is also working to enhance coordination between economic and social policies, in order to improve their effectiveness in the face of inflationary pressures and to ensure a sustainable balance between economic growth and social justice. In this regard, improving agricultural production ought to help alleviate pressure on prices during the next phase.

According to the government programme, achieving these objectives requires the establishment of the principle of complementarity and coherence between economic and social policies and sectoral strategies in order to ensure the optimal management of existing resources.

It will also be necessary to establish effective mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating measures and programmes on schedule.

Taken together, these measures will help boost the competitiveness of the Tunisian economy and lay the foundations for inclusive growth that enshrines social, economic and environmental justice.

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