Economic Associates and Proshare Nigeria Limited have projected that Nigeria’s gross foreign reserves could rise to as high as $60 billion by the end of 2026, reinforcing signs of sustained macroeconomic recovery following two years of market-oriented reforms.

The projection is contained in the Country Watch Nigeria 2026 Edition, the second publication in their jointly produced institutional macroeconomic surveillance series.

According to the report, gross reserves are expected to close 2026 within a range of $51.5 billion to $60 billion, while net foreign reserves are forecast at between $36.6 billion and $40 billion.

As of February 16, 2026, gross reserves had already reached a 13-year high of $50.45 billion, while net reserves improved from $4 billion in 2023 to about $32 billion at the start of 2026.

The report projects real GDP growth of 5.55 per cent for full-year 2026, with acceleration to 6.4 per cent by the second quarter.

Headline inflation is forecast to moderate sharply to 6.57 per cent by December 2026, reflecting exchange rate stability and tighter monetary conditions.

Nominal GDP is projected at $359.78 billion, while the real 91-day Treasury Bill rate is expected to settle at 4.01 per cent, supporting a positive real return environment.

The All-Share Index (ASI) is forecast to climb to 249,000 points in 2026 after gaining over 51 per cent in nominal terms in 2025 to close at 155,613 points.

The report divides Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory since 2020 into three distinct phases.

The Pre-Reform Phase (January 2020 – May 2023) was marked by persistent naira depreciation, widening foreign exchange premiums that peaked at 68 per cent, inflation rising from 12 per cent to 22 per cent, negative real interest rates, and a contraction in dollar GDP from $569 billion in 2019 to $352 billion by 2023.

The Reform Phase (June 2023 – November 2024) followed policy shifts including FX market unification and fuel subsidy removal.

Inflation initially surged to a peak of 34.6 per cent in November 2024 and the naira weakened further.

However, structural adjustments began to emerge as FX premiums narrowed sharply, net reserves rose to $23 billion, and real GDP growth improved from 2.3 per cent to 3.5 per cent.

The Recovery Phase (December 2024 – 2025) delivered measurable stabilisation. The naira appreciated to N1,436/US$ by December 2025 — its first sustained strengthening in five years — while FX premiums compressed to 2 per cent.

Inflation declined by 1,945 basis points from its peak, real interest rates turned positive, and 42 of 46 economic sectors recorded expansion.

Dr. Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, said the data show Nigeria has entered a recovery phase characterised by structural gains rather than seasonal adjustments.

“Net foreign reserves have grown sevenfold from their 2023 low. Real interest rates have turned positive. The exchange rate premium has been compressed from 71 per cent to 2 per cent,” he said.

Olufemi Awoyemi, Founder and Chairman of Proshare Nigeria Limited, noted that the series was designed to provide institutional-grade macroeconomic intelligence tailored for capital allocation and risk assessment.

The report identifies five key risks to the outlook: external commodity and capital flow shocks, reform sustainability, insecurity, pre-election fiscal pressures, and misaligned tax strategy.

It recommends improved reserve reporting transparency, rebuilding foreign direct investment stock, and aligning monetary policy rates with market benchmarks.

The firms stress that sustaining market-oriented reforms will be critical to achieving the projected $60 billion reserve level and consolidating macroeconomic stability through 2026.

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