The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) moved quickly to replace its leader John Garang who was killed in a helicopter crash on 30 July, seeking to limit the potential damage to Sudan’s peace process. Nevertheless, the loss of a strong figure who unified the fractious southern groups and represented the SPLM throughout its conflict with the government in Khartoum has added uncertainty to the slowly unfolding peace process. Riots in Khartoum and the south in the days following Dr Garang’s death killed over 100 people, throwing down a serious challenge to the SPLM and the Khartoum government if they are to keep the peace process on track.
Shortly after the news was announced, the SPLM leadership met at the group’s southern headquarters at New Site and unanimously approved the appointment of Salva Kiir Mayardit, Dr Garang’s deputy, signaling that there is unlikely to be a radical departure from the SPLM’s previous policies. Mr Kiir is expected to fill Dr Garang’s position as Sudan’s First Vice President shortly. The new leader is well respected, but lacks Dr Garang’s charisma and vision.
Dr Garang was returning to Sudan after meeting Uganda’s President Yoweri Musevani when the Ugandan helicopter he was traveling in crashed in bad weather in mountains near New Site. There has been no official suggestion of foul play causing the crash, and SPLM leaders say they are satisfied it was an accident. But Uganda’s aviation authority has been asked to look at the helicopter’s flight recorder, and President 'Umar Hasan al-Bashir has established a joint committee with the SPLM to investigate the crash.
Parties Affirm Commitment To Peace Process
The SPLM’s leadership said in a statement that it “reiterates its wholehearted commitment to the letter and spirit of the comprehensive peace agreement and its honest and transparent implementation.” Pagan Amun, a senior SPLM official said the south’s government-in-waiting “wanted no vacuum…we had to act swiftly and provide leadership.” President Bashir said in a televised statement that the government is “confident that the peace agreement will proceed as it was planned.” A delegation from Khartoum led by Federal Affairs Minister Nafie 'Ali Nafie went to New Site to pay respects to Dr Garang. “We want to affirm here that we will work together with the leadership of the SPLM,” he said, standing alongside the SPLM’s new leader. Such is the concern about the possible effects on the peace process that the US, a key backer of the peace deal, immediately dispatched US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Connie Newman and US Special Envoy to Sudan, Roger Winter, for talks with officials on both sides. The government, the SPLM and international leaders all urged calm following the riots, but the loss of the SPLM figurehead has clearly taken the lid off simmering tensions.
While the early signs of a relatively smooth transition of power in southern Sudan are good, it is too soon to tell what longer-term effect Dr Garang’s death will have. “The immediate need is to restore calm,” Dave Mozersky, Sudan analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) told MEES. In the short term, the cohesion of the SPLM is likely to remain, he says, and it is more a question of the group reorganizing to fill the gap than major splits emerging. Also, recent events could delay the political timetable, says Mr Mozersky. One possible victim of this delay could be the National Petroleum Commission (NPC) which is due to be established soon, and whose creation (along with a border commission) is all-important in dispelling the uncertainty which surrounds the future of the country’s oil sector (MEES, 1 August).
White Nile Remains Bullish On Block Ba Concession
Dr Garang was closely involved in the deal which gave the UK’s White Nile a concession for Block Ba in south Sudan, and his death caused nervousness among investors, prompting the company’s stock to fall 12%. But White Nile said representatives of the South Sudanese government had informed it that “the new constitution would continue to be implemented and that the death of Dr Garang will not affect the planned development of the country under the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.” Total, which maintains its claim to Block B and is seeking legal advice on the case, said that it regretted Dr Garang’s death and expressed its hope that the peace process would continue; but it declined to comment further on its dispute with White Nile.
