The Syrian economy has lost USD 100 billion in the past two years alone - roughly two years' worth of GDP - as a bloody civil war ravages the country.
While data is hard to come by, it is clear Syria's USD 60 billion economy is a shadow of its former self. Some analysts say the Syrian economy shrank by at least 30% last year alone.
"The country's GDP has decreased by 40-60% since the crisis began and an estimated 50% of the population have lost their jobs," wrote Elizabeth Ferris, co-director, Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy at The Brookings Institution, along with two other colleagues.
While the human casualties of Syria's devastating internal strife are incalculable and the tragedy of refugees and displaced people immense, the economic costs are also huge.
Bashar Al-Assad's struggle to prolong his 13-year rule has devastated whole towns and cities, ripped off the infrastructure and led to the deaths of thousands of educated and skillful Syrians who could otherwise had contributed to the economy.
"Those who do still have jobs are often unable to get to work because of insecurity and the large number of checkpoints. The public sector - which employs 30% of the country's workforce - has been less affected and these salaries are important to the economy as a whole," the Brookings authors said in a policy briefing.
It is a far cry from the days when the country had been growing around 4-5.3% annually from 2005 to 2010.
The International Monetary Fund had projected the country had grown 5% in 2010, before the country imploded in a civil war after the first quarter of 2011.
The economy had nearly doubled within those five years as Assad was being lauded for his economic and social reforms, and the Damascus Stock Exchange had opened its door once again after 40 years amid much fanfare.
ECONOMY SPIRALS DOWN
Syria's oil production stood at 431,000 barrels per day by 2005, but had steadily declined to 383,000 barrels per day by 2010. Around 150,000 bpd was exported, mostly to European markets.
Industry estimates show that Syrian crude output stands at around 50,000 bpd as major producers like Suncor Energy Inc., Royal Dutch Shell Plc. and Total SA have stayed away.
The country's gross official reserves stood at USD 16.5 billion in 2010, according to the IMF. But it is believed to have shrunk to USD 4 billion as the Syrian regime dips into its savings to fund the war and upkeep of its government.
The Syrian pound has also taken a beating during this time. In 2010, the American dollar fetched around 47 Syrian pounds, but now that figure is more likely around 230, as the economy took a nose-dive.
The Syrian trade is also hurt by economic sanctions imposed by the Western and Gulf states that has left Syria to rely on traditional allies Russia and Iran.
"The economy further contracted in 2012 because of international sanctions and reduced domestic consumption and production, and inflation has risen sharply," according to a note from the US Central Intelligence Agency.
"The government has struggled to address the effects of economic decline, which include dwindling foreign exchange reserves, rising budget and trade deficits, and the decreasing value of the Syrian pound."
POLITICAL CHANGES
Assad and Russian president Vladimir Putin may have scored a political victory over US president Barack Obama, after negotiating a deal on Syria's chemical weapons, but that means the civil war stalemate in the country is set to continue.
The United States had threatened to launch limited attacks on the Syrian regime for its alleged use of chemical weapons that killed more than 1,000 people, but Russia came to Syria's rescue and secured a deal that the US could not turn down.
While nothing is certain as Syria's chemical weapon remains in Assad's control, an immediate US attack has been averted for now.
But the misery of the Syrian people continues, as both sides exhaust their resources.
"Neither the armed opposition nor the regime is capable of defeating the other side," Qadri Jamil, Syria's deputy prime minister told the Guardian newspaper. "This zero balance of forces will not change for a while."
The deputy prime minister also suggested that the government may call for a ceasefire at Geneva talks.
The international political machinations are expected to continue for some time before there is any hope that the Syrian regime can sit down with the opposition.
It is also unclear whether the various groups that fight for either side will also be contained, especially the fundamentalist foreign fighters who thrive on chaos.
A PLAN POST-CONFLICT
The biggest tasks facing the authorities will be bringing Syrians back to their home. Around 4.25 million Syrians - or roughly 19% of the population is internally displaced. Another two million refugees have fled, and the United Nations expects that figure to reach 3.45 million by the end of 2013.
Under the auspices of The United States Institute for Peace (USIP), the Syrian National Council and a number of opposition groups from inside and outside Syria released a document titled 'The Day After Project' last year, which set out a post-Assad plan.
While the post-Assad era may have to wait a while longer, many of their policy recommendations and discussions still apply.
Some of the discussion points included enforcing the rule of law and laying the groundwork for place electoral and constitutional reforms. A key segment on the economy includes addressing "immediate social needs and providing relief with food, medicine, shelter, water, and energy.
"Reconstructing and redeveloping areas that have been shelled or otherwise damaged during the revolution; stimulating the local economy in the areas of reconstruction and redevelopment by creating jobs and opportunities for entrepreneurship, while rebuilding social policies to provide appropriate economic and social protections for all Syrians."
The reconstruction work will take years and billions of dollars. But first the country has to find that elusive thing called peace.
© alifarabia.com 2013
