In an ironic twist, the Egyptian army has saved democracy-seeking citizens from the Muslim Brotherhood. And while there is much rejoicing among the liberal, secular and even Salafists, the army may have set a dangerous precedent.
"By ousting a democratically elected - if unpopular and, in our opinion, inept - government, the army risks turning Egypt into a latter-day Pakistan, i.e., a country where the army is prepared to use its position as the ultimate arbiter of power to oust any democratically elected government which might threaten its own interests - albeit, purportedly at least, in the name of the common good," said Alastair Newton, geopolitical analyst at investment bank Nomura.
There are some similarities between Pakistan and Egypt: underdeveloped populous nations, with some natural resources, but where democratic forces have been suppressed by dictators and autocratic leaders.
Repeated military intervention in Pakistan since independence in 1947 has damaged the development of democracy in the country and stunted economic development.
"So, it is somewhat ironic, we think, that a similar cycle could be starting in Egypt within weeks of a democratically elected government in Pakistan serving for a full parliamentary term for the first time since independence and being succeeded by another democratically elected administration," said Newton.
"Indeed, we posed the question after the ousting of president Hosni Mubarak in 2011 whether Egypt would turn out like Turkey, Pakistan or maybe Iran: we may now have a clearer idea of the probable answer."
LIKE TURKEY IN THE '80s
Others draw a parallel with Turkey of the 1970s and 1980s.
"Turkey's coup in 1980 saw democracy back in action in 1983, after just three years," said Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital.
"I'd assume Egypt will see democracy restored even quicker than that. Turkey suffered more in the years ahead of the 1980 coup than Egypt has in recent years. In both cases, Islamic parties had a chance of governing (Turkey mid-1970s, Egypt until today), which arguably makes violent conflict less likely."
There are also some lessons to be drawn from the Algeria experience. The Islamic Salvation Front was on the verge of victory in the 1991 elections in Algeria, but their efforts were thwarted by the military, which feared an Islamic rule. That led to a 10-year-long civil war leaving as many as 200,000 people dead in its wake.
But fear of civil war a la Algeria in the 1990s are probably misplaced, says Robertson.
"This is more like Turkey in 1980. Investors will be hoping that a transition government will emerge, that can push through some reforms and do a deal with the IMF, but it is (of course) premature to judge when that may happen today. Africa funds will mostly stick with SSA and Morocco (a country likely to shift to strong democracy in the coming decade) and out of the Egyptian market for now."
SUPPORT FOR ARMY
The army's surprising ascendancy has been reinforced by Gulf and Western governments, who have largely welcomed the ouster of the democratically elected, if despised, government of the Muslim Brotherhood. Even Bashar Al-Assad, the embattled Syrian president is celebrating what he deems the end of political Islam.
Many secular and liberal Egyptians are also lauding the army's actions and consider it a re-launch of the Arab Spring that began in Tahrir Square two years ago. They believe they led the ouster of Mohammad Morsi with their concerted civil action, and the army merely reacted to their wishes.
Either way you look at it, the Egyptian military is calling the shots and it has suspended the constitution and promised elections without setting a deadline yet. The Salafist Nour Party's disagreement over Mohammad ElBaradei's rumored appointment as the interim prime minister underline the difficulties under way.
For now, the army is on the front foot. The fascination with men in uniform has reverberated across the checkered histories of Pakistan, Turkey and Algeria, where the army has been the only stabilizing force in a very unstable environment.
WEAK DEMOCRACY
And history shows that the army's large shadow almost always led to weak democratic set ups.
"While the army may not want to run the country day to day, it is likely to be content with a fairly weak coalition government of technocrats who won't interfere with its key interests: maintaining its economic privileges, avoiding any risk of prosecutions for human rights abuses, and preventing media investigation of both these issues," said Jane Kinninmont, senior research fellow at Chatham House.
But be careful what you wish for, says Jon Mark, associate fellow at Chatham House.
"The SCAF is once again center-stage in Egyptian politics, and they will find it hard to fully disengage. The Muslim Brotherhood will regroup, with its militants now intensely wary of dealing with the military. Voters may doubt their voice counts at all. Dissent may find new expression in violence, in the country's major urban areas, as well as in pressure points such as Sinai."
The Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters, however, will not go away and remain incensed as they genuinely feel deprived of their chance to rule democratically.
"We consider that the lesson the hardliners in the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will take from this is not that they should have governed better, but that via the ballot box they will never be allowed to govern at all," said Nomura's Newton.
© alifarabia.com 2013
