23 July 2011
JEDDAH - The Gulf region's power generation is forecast to increase to1,508TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 18.5 percent between 2011 and the end of the period, Business Monitor International said in a new report.
UAE will account for 7.33 percent of Middle East and Africa (MEA) power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market after system losses, etc, BMI said in its United Arab Emirates Power Report.
BMI's MEA power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4 percent over the previous year (when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown) of the period.
The UAE is ranked second in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, behind only Qatar, thanks to its developed competitive landscape, privatization progress, population and power consumption growth.
The size of the power market is relatively small and there is a relatively high level of regulation. The UAE is now five points behind regional leader Qatar, and is unlikely to be able to mount a near-term challenge for the top slot.
UAE Minister of Energy Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al-Hamili said that "access to energy, something most of us take for granted, is not yet a reality for billions of people throughout the world."
He ruled out any supply side constraint of crude oil adding that the oil market is well supplied.
"We know from our own experience that economic and social development depend on access to affordable energy. I stress the word affordable because there is no point in having a socket, if you cannot afford to pay the electricity bill," the minister noted said at the three-day Vienna Energy Forum early this month. BMI forecast real GDP growth averaging 3.53 percent per annum between 2011 and 2015, with the 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.00 percent.
The population is expected to expand from 4.7 million to 5.2 million over the period to 2015, with GDP per capita and power consumption per capita forecast to increase by 22 percent and 10 percent respectively. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 76TWh in 2010 to 93TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market if the country delivers the assumed 4.1 percent annual growth (2011-2015) in electricity generation.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI forecast an increase in UAE electricity generation of 39.6 percent, near the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 18.2 percent in 2015-2020, up from 18.1 percent between 2011 and 2015.
Primary energy demand growth is set to increase from 17.6 percent between 2011 and 2015 to 22.1 percent, at 43.6 percent for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 40 percent between 2011 and 2020.
JEDDAH - The Gulf region's power generation is forecast to increase to1,508TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 18.5 percent between 2011 and the end of the period, Business Monitor International said in a new report.
UAE will account for 7.33 percent of Middle East and Africa (MEA) power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market after system losses, etc, BMI said in its United Arab Emirates Power Report.
BMI's MEA power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4 percent over the previous year (when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown) of the period.
The UAE is ranked second in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, behind only Qatar, thanks to its developed competitive landscape, privatization progress, population and power consumption growth.
The size of the power market is relatively small and there is a relatively high level of regulation. The UAE is now five points behind regional leader Qatar, and is unlikely to be able to mount a near-term challenge for the top slot.
UAE Minister of Energy Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al-Hamili said that "access to energy, something most of us take for granted, is not yet a reality for billions of people throughout the world."
He ruled out any supply side constraint of crude oil adding that the oil market is well supplied.
"We know from our own experience that economic and social development depend on access to affordable energy. I stress the word affordable because there is no point in having a socket, if you cannot afford to pay the electricity bill," the minister noted said at the three-day Vienna Energy Forum early this month. BMI forecast real GDP growth averaging 3.53 percent per annum between 2011 and 2015, with the 2011 assumption being an increase of 3.00 percent.
The population is expected to expand from 4.7 million to 5.2 million over the period to 2015, with GDP per capita and power consumption per capita forecast to increase by 22 percent and 10 percent respectively. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 76TWh in 2010 to 93TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market if the country delivers the assumed 4.1 percent annual growth (2011-2015) in electricity generation.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI forecast an increase in UAE electricity generation of 39.6 percent, near the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 18.2 percent in 2015-2020, up from 18.1 percent between 2011 and 2015.
Primary energy demand growth is set to increase from 17.6 percent between 2011 and 2015 to 22.1 percent, at 43.6 percent for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 40 percent between 2011 and 2020.
© The Saudi Gazette 2011
