Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential elections will be held on May 23. If no candidate wins an outright majority, a runoff round will be held on June 16 and a president will be formally announced on June 21.
Last week, Egyptians watched the first televised presidential debate in the history of Egypt. The four-hour debate was an amazing event given that Egypt was under an authoritarian rule for three decades. The two front-runners taunted each other in what many describe as a new phenomenon. The televised debate came to mark a new political culture in Egypt.
The former foreign minister of Egypt and former Secretary-General of the Arab League, Amr Mousa took the advantage of the debate and landed some stinging remarks against Abdul Moneim Abu Al-Fotouh. He accused him of narrowly serving the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood. "Your opposition and defense were for the Brotherhood, not for Egypt," Mousa told Abu Al-Fotouh during the debate.
Mousa presented himself as a moderate leader with a long experience that could help him put the country back together. He appeared to understand the necessity to bring security to a country disturbed by turmoil since Mubarak was forced to step down.
On the other hand, Abu Al-Fotouh drew a contrast between a man who served under Mubarak and a man of the revolution. Abu Al-Fotouh presented himself as the candidate of the new revolution.
Although many observers point out to the fact that Abu Al Fotouh was expelled from the Muslim Brotherhood last year because he dared to defy the movement and announced his intention to stand for elections, he is widely seen as an Islamist candidate.
Despite this rift with the Muslim Brotherhood, Abu Al-Fotouh stepped up his campaign. He managed to gather a coalition around himself. He got support from secular liberals, Salafists, and youth who have broken away from the Muslim Brotherhood. Abu Al-Fotouh exhibits an image of a liberal Islamist, a model that praised by the West for some time.
On the other hand, Mousa is favored by secular and non-religious groups.
Undoubtedly, Mousa is popular in Egypt. During the 1990s, he rode a wave of popularity for his anti-Israel rhetoric. He described Israel as a "country practicing a hostile policy."
On the other hand, Abu Al-Fotouh referred to Israel as a "strategic enemy." "The majority of Egyptians are enemies of Israel. The agreement with Israel should be revised and the sections which are against our interests should be removed immediately and only what's in our interests should stay," said Abu Al- Fotouh.
Mousa was quick to make it perfectly clear that Egypt needs a president who can deal with Israel in a very responsible way. Implicit in his statement was that he was the only one who can live up to the expectations of the people when it comes to Israel. "We have lots of disagreements. Most of our people consider it an enemy, but the responsibility of the president is to deal with such things responsibly and not run after hotheaded slogans," he said. Polls however show that Egyptian people do not care for a relationship with Israel. 61 percent of the Egyptian people wanted to cancel the peace treaty with Israel, according to a Pew poll released last week.
The most recent opinion poll, conducted by the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, puts Mousa at the head of Egypt's presidential race, garnering almost 41 percent of the popular vote. This poll shows a slight increase in his popularity since the last poll conducted on April 28.
In the most recent poll, Mubarak's last prime minister, came second receiving some 20 percent but pushed former Muslim Brotherhood figure Adel Moneim Abu Al-Fotouh to assume the third place with 17.8 percent of the vote. It seems that the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate is not doing well. Their candidate Mohammed Musri came in the fourth place position with only 9.4 percent.
Equally important, there is an increasing number of undecided voters who can really decide the outcome. From 10.7 percent, the number of undecided voters has hit 15.3 percent in the last poll. This may lead to confusion among the voting public. The poll shows Mousa beating Abu Al-Fotouh in possible runoff elections with 63.8 percent for Mousa and 36.2 percent for Abu Al-Fotouh.
This is the first time where Egyptian expatriates practice their right to vote. Amid a state of confusion and uncertainty, the one million expatriates registered to vote. Over the last weekend, hundreds of them queue in front of Egypt's embassies to cast their votes.
In brief, barring any new development, it seems that no candidate can win from the first round. Therefore, a round off is certain and that may lead to new dynamic in Egypt with a farfetched consequences on the identity o the winner.
© Arab News 2012
