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The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance is unlikely to trigger an immediate repricing across regional capital markets. Investor sentiment continues to be shaped primarily by geopolitical risks and large-scale supply disruptions, rather than changes in cartel membership, analysts told Zawya.
Carole Nakhle, CEO of London‑based energy consultancy Crystol Energy, said that “a structural re‑rating would require evidence that this changes long‑term pricing power, not just OPEC membership.”
Junaid Ansari, head of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, also downplayed the near‑term capital‑markets impact of the decision, noting that oil prices, and by extension oil‑exposed equities and credits, are currently being driven by geopolitical supply shocks.
“This news would have been catastrophic if the war had not affected supplies to the tune of around 10 million barrels per day,” he said.
HSBC said that once Hormuz reopens, ADNOC could eventually produce over 4.5 million barrels a day, up from a quota of about 3.4 million bpd, with increases rolled out gradually over 12–18 months. The extra supply would also help rebuild global oil stocks the bank said.
Prior to the outbreak of the war, several major investment banks had expected oil prices to trend lower in 2026, reflecting softer demand and rising supply.
JPMorgan had forecast a Brent crude average of around $60 per barrel for 2026, while Goldman Sachs’ baseline scenario pointed to prices of about $80 per barrel by Q4 2026.
However, those assumptions shifted after the start of the Iran conflict and associated supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs has re‑anchored its forecast at around $90 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026.
While no major short‑term impact is expected in the oil market from the UAE’s surprise exit from the cartel, oil prices on Wednesday extended their rally after reports that the US will continue its blockade of Iranian ports, triggering longer‑lasting supply disruptions from Middle East producers. Brent crude futures for June rose $3.08, or 2.8%, to $114.34 a barrel by 0824 GMT.
(Writing by Ahmad Mousa; editing by Seban Scaria)
