Strategie Grains cuts EU & UK 2020/21 stock, import forecasts

This was linked to a 300,000-tonne rise in its crushing estimate to 24.2mln tonnes


PARIS- French consultancy Strategie Grains on Monday cut its estimate of rapeseed stocks in the European Union and Britain at the end of the current (July/June) 2020/21 season due to attractive crushing margins and a lower estimate for imports in the region.

Tight oilseeds supplies have sent European rapeseed prices soaring in the past weeks, with the front month on Paris-based Euronext COMc1 hitting an all-time high on Monday.

Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for EU and UK rapeseed ending stocks this season by 180,000 tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes, down 800,000 tonnes from last season.

This was mainly linked to a 300,000-tonne rise in its crushing estimate to 24.2 million tonnes, now 600,000 tonnes above the 2019/20.

"With rapeseed crushing margins at a historic level, the interest of manufacturers remains strong in this second half of the season despite very high seed prices," the consultancy said in a report, pointing to historically high rapeseed oil prices. 

It also cut its forecast for rapeseed imports this 2020/21 season in the EU and Britain by 190,000 tonnes from its February estimate to 6.5 million tonnes, now nearly stable on 2019/20.

"Falling Ukrainian rapeseed imports (this season) are expected to be offset by strong increases in Australian canola imports. Imports from Canada are expected to be at the same level as in the previous season," it said.

Hamburg-based analysts Oil World had said last week that soaring prices of rapeseed in the EU were likely to boost EU imports of the oilseed in the first six months of 2021.*:nL5N2L15CK For the 2021/22 season, Strategie Grains trimmed its rapeseed crop forecast in the EU with 27 member states to 17.05 million tonnes, down 90,000 tonnes from its previous estimate but still 800,000 tonnes above last season.

(Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide, editing by Louise Heavens and Emelia Sithole-Matarise) ((; +336 8774 4148;))

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