On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped onto the lunar surface and proclaimed, "That's one small step for a man, and a giant leap for mankind." The 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission is an opportunity to consider just how giant that one small step turned out to be.
While the word "exceptionalism" has taken on unseemly nationalist tones of late, the Apollo programme exemplified American exceptionalism at its best - a country willing to do what others would not or could not. In May 1961, before America had accomplished a single orbital flight, US President John F. Kennedy announced the nation's intent to send a man to the Moon and return him safely by the end of the decade. US leaders and the agency that began in 1958 - Nasa, or the National Aeronautics and Space Administration - met the challenges even after Kennedy's assassination in November 1963. Astronaut William Anders photographed Earthrise in 1968 during the Apollo 8 mission.
The world cheered when the astronauts landed safely on the Moon. Sadly, however, an attitude of "been there, done that" quickly took over the American public and their politicians, and the last three Apollo missions were cancelled in 1970. Funding played a part in the cancellations, along with questions about whether the money was well spent and technology concerns after mechanical mishaps threatened the lives of the Apollo 13 crew.
Today, the US Defense Department describes the space environment as 'congested, contested and competitive,' a description adopted by others as well. These terms provide a yardstick for measuring the 'giant leap for mankind.'
Space is congested. In 1969, fewer than 100 satellites orbited the Earth while as of March 31, there were 2,062 - a number that is rapidly growing. Congestion creates problems, particularly regarding the potential for space debris. Scientists once thought of space as so vast that the chance of satellites colliding was miniscule, yet in 2009, a Russian satellite and commercial satellite collided, creating more than 1,000 pieces of debris 10cm or larger. Such debris can randomly hit spacecraft, as over-dramatised by the 2013 blockbuster movie Gravity. Because of the high speeds involved, a hit by a small piece can be catastrophic.
Space - once the almost exclusive domain of the US and the former Soviet Union - has opened to other countries and commercial ventures. Today, 12 countries and one regional organisation have launched their own satellites, and more than 60 countries or organisations own at least one satellite.
When Princeton physicist Gerard O'Neill published The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space in 1977, he anticipated colonies by 1995. He expected Nasa to carry his vision to reality, but died disheartened in 1992. British physicist Freeman Dyson wrote the introduction to the 2013 edition of High Frontier, noting that Nasa, with its focus on the International Space Station, or ISS, was "not a step forward on the road to the High Frontier. It's a big step backward, a setback that will take decades to overcome." The international cooperation demonstrated on the ISS has been noteworthy, particularly between the US and Russia, though the US has deliberately stiff-armed China's participation. Overall, ISS has not been a steppingstone into the galaxy, but an end in itself.
Space, many advocates expected, would evolve like any other geographic region - first through government-sponsored expeditions, then through private ventures. Analysts certainly expected the space industry to evolve similarly to the automobile, aircraft and computer industries, initially through government seed money and then private capital. But that happened only recently. NewSpace companies, those largely privately financed by billionaires - and not offshoots of large defense companies - are rapidly changing the complexion of space business and consequently the space environment. Space will likely become more congested due to such activity. And NewSpace has also brought new meaning to space competition.
One of the key reasons O'Neill's vision hasn't reached fruition, or even really germinated, has been exorbitant launch costs. But competition among NewSpace companies like SpaceX, Blue Horizons and Virgin Galactic are bringing launch costs down, taking risks Nasa and its old-guard launch suppliers are unwilling or unable to take. Lower launch costs have also spurred real activity in areas of commercial space. Space mining, space habitats, and space tourism are rapidly becoming reality.
The good news is that space development is underway, largely due to NewSpace efforts. Such efforts could change the landscape of the future, assuming that sustainability is maintained. Sustainability is in everyone's best interests - including the military.
Armstrong's "giant leap for mankind" has stumbled, but not fallen and there is still room for optimism.
-Yale Global
