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Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 each to $60 and $56 respectively, on lower-than-expected OECD stocks, even as it maintained its view of a 2026 surplus.
The bank now assumes 2026 global inventory builds in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries' commercial stocks will only come to 19%, versus 27% previously, and it therefore expects a subset of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC8+, to begin gradually increasing production in the second quarter of 2026.
In a note dated Sunday, Goldman noted that it was maintaining its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace. The bank sees Brent and WTI averaging $65/bbl and $61/bbl respectively in 2027.
Separately, in a note dated Saturday, Barclays said "oil market fundamentals are completely at odds with the super glut narrative."
Barclays said regarding oil prices that despite the 15% move higher year to date, geopolitical tensions still pose asymmetric upside risks.
Both Brent and WTI futures prices fell more than 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict. [O/R]
"A potential 1 mb/d supply disruption--which corresponds to half of Iran's crude exports--for 12 months would boost the fair value of oil by $8," Barclays said.
Goldman, though, expects downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI for the fourth quarter of 2026 if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates landed stock builds and unlocks higher supply in the longer term.
| Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | ||
|
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
| Goldman Sachs | $64 | $65 | $60 | $61 | February 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | $65 |
| $61 |
| February 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | $65- $75 |
| $60-$70 |
| February 04, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | $58 | $57 | $54 | $53 | November 24, 2025 |
| Macquarie | $61 | - | $57 | - | September 30, 2025 |
| Commerzbank | $60 | - | $57 | - | November 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | $56 | - | $52 | - | December 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | $65 | - | - | - | December 11, 2025 |
| HSBC | $65 | - | $62 | - | April 15, 2025 |
| BofA | $60 | - | $57 | - | December 18, 2025 |
| Citi | $62 | - | - | - | December 11, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | $72 | - | - | - | October 13, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | $70 |
| - | - | January 13, 2025 |
| UBS | $67 | - | - | - | January 5, 2026 |
* indicates end-of-period forecasts
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
(Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
