Chamber members' monthly exports still on the rise
A recent study conducted by Dubai Chamber showed that the monthly exports by its members indicated an increasing structural trend as the Certificates of Origin issued by Dubai Chamber to export shipments of its members showed that, after the surge in exports that began in the later part of 2007 and ran into the most part of 2008, the level of monthly exports in the first 3 months of 2009 indicated a return to the quadratic pattern over time defined for the earlier period (Fig. 1). Treating the values between August 2007 to December 2008 as outliers and deleting them in fitting the line, the quadratic model as specified in the below figure, yielded a near-perfect coefficient of determination (R2 of 0.972).
For the first 3 months of 2009, total exports of Dubai Chamber members reached AED 14.5 bn in January, AED 14.2 bn in February and AED 15.4 bn in March; for a total of 44.1 bn. Predicted value of exports for the quarter based on the trend line fitted was within 6% of the total actual value. 
Major markets in 2009
In the first quarter of 2009, Dubai Chamber members' exports to 25 destinations exceeded AED 100 million each. Table 1 presents the pattern of exports to these markets in the first quarter of the last 3 years. During the period, the largest market remained to be the GCC, where exports grew from AED 17 bn in the first quarter of 2007, to AED 22 bn in 2008, but declining to AED 19 bn in 2009, with exports to Qatar dipping by 36%; exports to Oman and Bahrain by 29% and 10% respectively. The total GCC exports declined despite the 1.3% and 12% increases in exports to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, respectively.
Compared to the 2007 values, however, substantial increases were noted in exports to Saudi Arabia, where an average annual increase of 21% was noted; and to Kuwait and Bahrain, both growing by 15% annually. On the other hand, the declines noted for Qatar and Oman were not as substantial.
Trade between Dubai's customs territory and the free zones and duty free shops declined by 23% between 2008 and 2009, but an annual average rate of increases of 3% could be recorded from 2007 to 2009. Similarly, trade with India and Pakistan had declined substantially since 2008, but compared to the value in 2007 an annual rate of change of 16% could be noted.
Major markets in the Middle East posted an overall growth of 3% since 2008, with exports to Lebanon expanding by 50% and offsetting the decline of 39% in exports to Yemen. Other destinations that contracted were Jordan, Syria and Iraq. Comparing with the 2007 first quarter exports, however, the 2009 values represented increases, ranging from an average annual rate of 3% for Yemen to 38% for Lebanon; leading to an overall average annual rate of change of 20%
In the African markets, annual rate of change had been positive for both periods of comparison. Between 2008 and 2009, largest growth was registered for Libya, at 72%, as total exports to the destination recovered from a slump in 2008. On the other hand, with 2007 relatively high, average annual rate of change between 2007 and 2009 was low at 4%. Exports to Egypt and Algeria, which represented declines between 2008 and 2009, actually recorded double-digit average annual growth since 2007.
On the other hand, continuous growth had been noted in exports to Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tunisia. On the contrary, exports to Sudan had been declining since 2007. Nonetheless, growth of exports to major markets in Africa had been positive for both periods; 8% between 2008 and 2009 and 13% annually between 2007 and 2009.
Exports to China and the USA had been growing annually, both at 17% between 2008 and 2009. However, considering 2007 figures, average annual growth of 5% could be recorded for China, but exports to USA had been growing at an average annual growth of 25%.
On the other hand, exports to Turkey and Switzerland had been declining since 2007.
Despite the global financial crisis's effect of tightening banks' policies on loans and fueling uncertainly in the market as additional capital becomes more and more difficult to access, the above data shows no definite recorded decline in exporting activities. Instead, a more conservative growth pattern, consistent with the earlier years could be more sustainable.
HE Eng Hamad Buamim, Director General, Dubai Chamber, pointed out that the years 2007-2008 were exceptional due to high oil prices. He said that oil prices, especially in 2008 showed a 37% increase, a rate that was comparable to the growth of 38% for annual exports of Dubai Chamber members for the same period. However, while oil prices had dropped by 51% in 2009, contraction of exports of Dubai Chamber members during the same period was by only 14%, indicating a lower vulnerability of Dubai exports to oil price drop. It must be considered here that many of Dubai's major markets are oil-producing countries in the Middle East that are generally favoured by rising oil prices.
-Ends-
© Press Release 2009
