Key Messages

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand in early 2026 as an increasing number of households face difficulty accessing food. Households in these areas are expected to have depleted own produced food stocks. With grain stocks low or unavailable on the market in some areas, many poor households will likely face challenges purchasing staple cereal, mainly maize meal, due to below-average purchasing power. Meanwhile, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail in most typical surplus-producing areas of the Mashonaland Provinces during the same period. Poor households in these areas are expected to meet only their minimal food needs through own-produced stocks or seasonal casual labor engagement at below-normal levels due to low payments.
  • Acute food security is expected to improve from April/May 2026 throughout the country driven by most likely favorable 2026 harvest following the forecast above-average rainy season. This will result in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Many households are expected to consume food from their own production. Meanwhile, as market supplies increase, staple-food prices are expected to be at a seasonal low, improving access for non-crop-producing households, especially in urban areas.
  • Above-average rainfall between October 1 and December 15 in most areas is facilitating engagement in land preparation and planting activities. However, Mashonaland Central, northern areas of Mashonaland East, and localized areas in Masvingo provinces have received below-average rainfall since October.Water and pasture conditions have improved.Given sufficient rainfall by early December, planting is ongoing across the country, and planted areas are significantly higher than at the same time last year.
  • Typical seasonal income-earning activities and household income remain at below-normal levels across many parts of the country. Theseinclude food crop sales due to lack of stocks among the poor in some areas, agricultural labor, self-employment, petty trade, remittances, and cross-border trade. Most of these have been reduced due to localized rainfall deficits last year and continued macroeconomic constraints.

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