#TradingDebates: Europe needs a new vision

Below is the full text of Lars Seier Christensen's opening speech today at Saxo's #TradingDebates event in London.

Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen.

Welcome to Saxo Bank’s #TradingDebates.

A very special welcome to his Excellency, former President Václav Klaus of the Czech Republic.

I would also like to welcome the top financial market experts we have gathered here today.

They will debate the key challenges facing Europe over two panels.

The first will be on September’s German election and the big obstacles that lie ahead for Europe’s leaders.

The second will see panelists discuss the big policy dilemma facing central banks and their new toy: forward guidance.

I encourage you to join the discussion by asking panelists your questions and presenting your own views on social media.

Later this afternoon, we will be joined by Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independent Party. Please help me welcome this European freedom fighter when he arrives.

Thank you all for coming and thanks to Bloomberg for hosting this very timely event.

We have organised the #TradingDebates because the upcoming German election is likely to be a "make-or-break" moment for the Eurozone.

This, however, is not how things are perceived in Brussels. We were made to understand from Mr [Jose Manuel] Barroso’s State of the Union address earlier this week that all is well. The euro is saved, the markets are in awe of the magnificent decisions made by the EU leadership and there is nothing wrong with the EU that cannot be solved by – more EU.

The medicine for all the wrongs in the EU is always more EU to these people. Even after presiding over one of the most monumental failures in post-war history, the euro, they cannot be brought to the slightest self-criticism or the slightest adjustment of their course towards disaster.

But the German election could well be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the EU.

According to opinion polls, the Germans are in no mood for a change of leadership.

Angela Merkel is likely to remain as chancellor of Germany and the de facto leader of the EU, although the outcome is by no way a given conclusion

Some of the latest polls suggest that a new party will be represented in the Bundestag, the lower house: the Alternative für Deutschland, the only party that favors an exit from the euro.

That is probably the most interesting part of this election.

Merkel might lose votes to the Eurosceptic AfD, if AfD is elected into the Bundestag, and could be caught between a rock and hard place with a more confident SPD challenging the underlying stability of German politics. The agenda will move from Europe to domestic issues, but Merkel could still be forced to re-evaluate the EU and, especially, the EU’s doomed currency because of the AfD and the need for her to find a winning position for the next election.

Chancellor Merkel has developed a very rational approach to the EU. She wants the EU member states to follow rules and ensure Europe becomes more competitive. But this is a losing battle as the project becomes ever more stressed.

Politics is also about stimulating new ideas and it is very possible that the time has come for Germany to set out a new course.

That course will be about setting a fresh agenda instead of following a historic direction set out by the current generation’s predecessors – what seemed like a grand plan is now a failed vision.

Simply put, if Europe wants to restart its economic development, we need a new vision of Europe in the 21st century.

We need a renewed focus on the microeconomy, rather than on the failing macroeconomy. We need business to be set free to create, innovative and prosper. We need the 26 million SMEs in the EU to regain confidence and create jobs, just as they have created 85 percent of all new jobs in Europe since 2000. Barroso cannot create jobs, but business can.

We need to take a long, hard look at the failures of the EU, the euro and the leadership of Europe. We need to set out a new vision.

And that is why I am so pleased that President Václav Klaus is with us today.

I have met a number of politicians over the years, but very few of them are seriously prepared to stand up for their beliefs.

Nowadays, politics is all about spin, opinion polls and what voters are prepared to tolerate, rather than leadership and fundamental personal integrity.

Ideologies and courage have been consigned to the past.

That is why I admire President Klaus.

He is a politician who is not enslaved by political correctness and leads with his convictions.

And one with solid intellectual and ideological reasons for his convictions.

A man who actually has his philosophical and scientific groundwork in place.

When the President last year published his English edition of Europe – The Shattering of Illusions about his frustrations with the current situation in Europe, I did not hesitate to support it and had it published in my mother tongue.

The euro has shown its true face and anyone with a rational view of the world sees the currency collaboration as a historic failure that can lead to even further fatal consequences for Europe and the continent’s competitiveness vis-à-vis the rest of the world.

Only a much more far-reaching integration between the euro countries can save the currency, or at least postpone the collapse.

This would mean: 

* A common financial policy;

* A common incurring of debt;

* A willingness to pay enormous transfers from the rich to the poor countries, or, more specifically, from Germany to all the others.

That is a possible road if one wishes to save the euro at all costs - but it is not a desirable one. At least not for the citizens who in this case - like in too many other cases - seem to have fundamentally different interests to the politicians.

It requires a will to give up national independence to an extent that is not acceptable to the voters.

For that reason, it can only be accomplished in an undemocratic manner. And this is exactly what is being attempted.

Hopefully, the German elections will initiate the process of a fundamental transformation of the EU.

Instead of saving something that can’t be saved, and shouldn’t be saved, we should focus on the strengths that we have.

A huge labour force. 500 million consumers. A well-developed free-trade area. Variation and differentiation. Different economic systems. Different and competing tax systems. Low salary areas. Areas with high education levels. Some of the strongest and historically most important cultures in the world. A Christian legacy that, despite all, brings us together. A collective pride by being part of Europe, but also by being citizens of our own national states.

Mr President, we are honoured to have you with us today to discuss the current situation in the EU and tell us if the EU will ever re-evaluate itself, check the course and listen to the European populations.

The floor is yours, Mr President.

Today's #TradingDebates event brings together President Václav Klaus and Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, as well as business leaders and financial analysts to discuss the future of the Eurozone and the single currency. The event,#TradingDebates - The end of the Euro as we know it, is being hosted at Bloomberg's European Headquarters in London.

I invite everyone to participate or follow the debates via Twitter: http://twitter.com/saxomarkets using the hashtag #TradingDebates.