By Christophe Schmidt

WASHINGTON, Feb 26, 2011 (AFP) - An end to Moamer Kadhafi's dictatorship would create a transition period with stumbling blocks for Libya, a divided country whose institutions are weak, despite oil wealth and young people's desire for freedom and democracy.

Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Libya ranks with other Arab countries such as Yemen or the Gulf monarchies as "extreme cases," said author and political consultant Khalil Matar.

In Libya's east, west and south regions, which have existed long before the country's independence, "tribal alliances are more important than anything else," explained Matar, who wrote "Lockerbie and Libya," examining Libya's terrorist bombing of an American passenger flight over Scotland in 1988.

"It's based on tribal alliances, very different than Egypt or Tunisia. It will be about how much can the tribes hold together."

Robert Danin, a Middle East expert for the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote on the think tank's website: "While Kadhafi's departure from the scene would be mourned by few, it would also create an enormous power vacuum. Entirely unclear is what glue will hold together this largely decentralized country, in which nationalist identification is low, and tribal and clan affinity paramount."

The lack of institutions, deliberately perpetuated by the dictator of the past 42 years, is another handicap.

"Tunisia and Egypt also had dictators but with a constitution, a parliament, elections and a semblance of democracy," said a Geneva-based Libyan League for Human Rights spokesman, who asked not to be named. "All this is foreign to Libya, making the challenge a bit more difficult."

But these are "groundless fears," said Algerian lawyer Saad Djebbar, who is based in London.

Young people who protested and marched in Tripoli and Benghazi, are connected on Facebook and Twitter like they were in Cairo and Tunis.

"The young generation have become part of the universal order, the order where people want to enjoy the same respect for the rule of law, for open society and for good governance," said Djebbar, who participated in a roundtable discussion at Chatham House.

"They watch stellite TV," Djebbar continued, "they looked at how Obama was elected, at how people speak without fear, assemble without fear."

While some predict a Balkanization of Libya if Kadhafi is gone, Djebbar noted that protesters in the eastern part of the country were chanting "Libya is one tribe, one state."

In an editorial on Friday, The Economist said: "There is little doubt that Libya, even without Mr Kadhafi, will remain a messy and possibly violent place. Yet Libya does have some things going for it. It has plenty of cash, with foreign reserves alone totalling nearly $140 billion.

"Its talented exiles are eager to return," it continued. "And, in a sense Mr Kadhafi is unlikely to have foreseen, the trauma of his rule may have forged a national identity much more heartfelt than it was before."

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Copyright AFP 2011.