While the recent conflict between Hamas and Israel could come to an end, it is clear that new battle lines and alliances are being drawn, changing once again the regional dynamic.
It does not take much for the Middle East to flare up in a great ball of fire.
The recent conflict between Hamas and Israel is the first major Arab conflict in the post-Arab Spring revolution and threatens to escalate beyond the Israeli-Palestinian borders.
And things have changed remarkably in the region.
Egypt under Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammad Morsy is playing a more active role and mediating between Israel and its ally Hamas.
"The proliferation of players in the current Israeli-Hamas cease-fire negotiations highlight the major shift in the regional strategic environment since the fall of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, calling into question the sustainability of any potential truce," warns Stratfor, the security and risk consultancy.
With U.S. Secretary State Hillary Clinton in Israel on November 20, and set to meet Palestinian president Mahmood Abbas before travelling to Egypt, diplomatic efforts are under way behind the scenes.
But neither Israel nor the U.S. are willing to talk to Hamas, having labelled it as a terrorist organization. For any enduring peace, Israel and the U.S. both need to start speaking to Hamas, which runs Gaza.
Stratfor says it has learned that the Egyptian cease-fire proposal that Clinton will be studying with the Israelis entails an agreement by the major Palestinian factions to cease rocket attacks against Israel.
"In return, Egypt would send monitors to Gaza to enforce the cease-fire -- though no details were provided on whether Egypt would secure or remove the remaining rockets from Gaza and what Egypt would do to prevent replenishments from entering Gaza if the border is reopened," said the consultancy in a report.
"Israel would discontinue its policy of targeted killings and, at a later stage, would allow the opening of the Rafah crossing on a regular basis. Rumors continue to percolate on the terms of the cease-fire proposal, and the above claims could not be verified, but these terms do fit with the likely parameters of the negotiation."
WIDER CONFLICT
The current conflict comes at a time when Syria is already engulfed in a civil war, Jordan is facing its most intense protests yet, while Lebanon is on edge with Syrian, Jordanian and Palestinian conflicts raging all around them.
Of course, further east Iran is trying to out-manoeuvre Western sanctions.
"The strongest reaction has so far been seen in Jordan, where the crisis in Gaza is rapidly turning up the heat on protests that started last week over rising fuel prices," says Jane Kinninmont, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. "Jordan is seen by the west as a pillar of moderation when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict, having signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1994. Jordan also hosts nearly two million Palestinian refugees, making up one-third of its population. This means any Palestinian conflict immediately resonates on the Jordanian streets."
While Jordan's King Abdullah has defused tension over the past 20 months by sacking three prime ministers, demonstrators have turned their fury against the monarchy in the latest protests, rocking the regime.
"Lebanon has its own worries that the Hezbollah group will lash out at Israel while the latter is distracted in Gaza - as Israel found it hard to fight on both fronts in 2006 - but on balance there seems to be a tacit agreement between both Lebanese factions and outside powers that Lebanon should be kept intact, at least for now," wrote Ms. Kinninmont in a note.
U.S. NOT ENGAGED
Another new dimension of the latest conflict is the United States' arm length diplomatic efforts. While President Barack Obama has definitely made the right noises and taken some credit for Israel's Iron Dome defence programme that has fended off hundreds of Hamas' rockets, the White House has preferred to play a low-key role.
This would Israel's far-right which has always been belligerent towards Palestinians.
"It may also suit the purposes of the region's many sub-state actors, emboldened by what appears to be a lack of US sanctions on their actions in pursuing their own goals, whether in opposition to the US's traditional allies in the region (Israel, Turkey and the Gulf monarchies) or in coalition with them, as in the Syrian opposition groups armed directly or indirectly by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar," says Dr Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.
While the recent conflict between Hamas and Israel would potentially calm down, it is clear that new battle lines and alliances are being drawn, changing once again the regional dynamic.
© alifarabia.com 2012
