1/ CURVE-BALLS

With major parts of the U.S. economy visibly slowing, the Treasury market has reacted in a striking manner - the 10-year yield is close to falling below the two-year yield, which would mark the curve inversion that has preceded every recession in the last 40 years. Signs of slowdown have persuaded markets to bet the Fed will slow the pace of rate increases next year.

But wait. Inflation is running at a 9-month high, annual wage growth a 9-1/2 year high and unemployment at a near-50 year low. So November inflation, due on Dec. 12, will play into how Fed chair Jerome Powell frames the path of future tightening.

So it remains to be seen where the curve goes from here. There are reasons to believe it can steepen and reasons to believe it will invert. Depending on how the incoming data looks - stagflation, anyone? - the Fed's view on where neutral is and what its policy response should be in the coming months is far from clear.