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- Europe victim of the far right, with nationalism a frightful reality
Dubai-UAE:– The fate of the world in 2019 will depend on several key factors, including Israel’s and Palestine’s acceptance of US Deal of the Century, a more productive dialogue between North Korea and the US, Iran’s willingness to return to the negotiating table, the European Union elections and the fate of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency in France. This was the clear consensus among the distinguished panellists at the ‘State of the World Politics 2019’ session at the Arab Strategy Forum 2018.
“It will be a year of sports,” said His Excellency Bernardino León, Director General of the Emirates Diplomatic Academy, describing the interesting political arena of 2019. “Putin is good at practicing judo, where you use the weaknesses of your opponents rather than concentrate on our strengths. Between the US and China, we will see not judo or boxing, but rather sumo wrestling, where there are hard blows struck but no blood drawn, and Europe is where chameleons will be busy fighting as nationalist and populist powers rise.”
Fawaz Gerges, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, expressed the opinion that the best way to make sense of the chequered political arena of 2019 is to focus on key social trends, including escalation of the populist far right movement in Europe and the fate of Macron’s presidency in France, the theatre between Israel and Lebanon, and the global decrease in terror attacks by 27 per cent. The foremost among these trends, and one that is of grave relevance to this region, is US Deal of the Century and its reception by Israel and Palestine.
“Trump has already undermined the role of the US as a credible broker of peace in the Middle East,” said Gerges. “The Deal of the Century Does not Address the Core Problems of the people of Palestine.”
Ambassador Dennis Ross, former Special Assistant to US President Barack Obama and Senior Director for the Central Region at the National Security Council, took a more moderate approach, suggesting that the deal has a chance if it is anchored in two fundamentals, “a credible state for Palestinians and the capital for this state.”
With the world’s focus on the Middle East, prompting Ross to allude to the fact that it is unlikely the US will ever completely disengage, the rising concerns in Europe are indeed disturbing.
“Nationalism is not a threat any more – it is real, it is already in Europe, and Brexit was its first victim,” said León. Lamenting the absence of a counter narrative, Gerges pointed out that even more alarming than the far-right authoritarian culture is the realisation that “it has not reached its peak, we are just seeing the tide come in, with no sign of it changing any time soon. We are already seeing neo-fascism in Italy and Germany, and who knows the state of France.”
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About the Arab Strategy Forum
The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) is a premier global platform that convenes world leaders and strategic decision-makers from the public and private sector to exchange insights on geopolitical trends that impact the world today. Held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, the annual event features panel discussions and expert-led thought sessions revolving around the state of the world and the state of the Arab world.
Aimed at enabling participants to make informed decisions, navigate risks, and leverage short- and long-term opportunities, the forum analyses the current Arab and global political and economic landscape, examines conflicts and possible resolutions, and highlights events that are set to leave a lasting impact worldwide.
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