OPEC trims oil demand outlook for 2021, maintains 2022 projections

The non-OPEC supply growth in 2021 has been revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month's assessment to now stand at 0.7 mb/d

  
The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sits outside its headquarters ahead of the OPEC and NON-OPEC meeting, Austria December 6, 2019. Image used for illustrative purpose

The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sits outside its headquarters ahead of the OPEC and NON-OPEC meeting, Austria December 6, 2019. Image used for illustrative purpose

REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

World oil demand is estimated to increase by 5.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2021, according to oil cartel OPEC's monthly report. This outlook has been trimmed compared to its previous estimate of 5.96 mb/d in September.

"The downward revision is mainly driven by lower-than-expected actual data for the first three quarters of this year, despite healthy oil demand assumptions going into the final quarter of the year, which will be supported by seasonal uptick in petrochemical and heating fuel demand and the potential switch from natural gas to petroleum products due to high gas prices," OPEC said in its report. 

The world is expected to consume 96.6 mb/d of petroleum products this year.

According to OPEC estimates, world oil demand growth in 2022 remains unchanged at 4.2 mb/d. As a result, global demand next year is seen averaging 100.8 mb/d. Demand is anticipated to be supported by healthy economic momentum in the main consuming countries and better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

World oil supply

The non-OPEC supply growth in 2021 has been revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to now stand at 0.7 mb/d.

The revisions were driven mainly by a downward adjustment in 3Q21 due to factors such as production outages in the US Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Ida; maintenance in the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan; and a force majeure in Canada at the Suncor oil sands site, the report said. 

The impact of the Hurricane Ida led to a downward revision in US liquids supply in 2021 from growth of 0.1 mb/d to a contraction of 0.1 mb/d. The main growth drivers for 2021 supply growth continue to be Canada, Russia, China, Norway and Brazil.

Similarly, the non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 is revised up by 0.1 mb/d due to the base change to now stand at 3.0 mb/d.

Russia and the US are expected to be the main drivers, followed by Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana, and other countries in the DoC.

OPEC crude oil production in September increased by 0.49 mb/d m-o-m, to average 27.33 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

(Reporting by Seban Scaria; editing by Daniel Luiz)

(seban.scaria@refinitiv.com)

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