Though the world is undergoing the Fourth Industrial Revolution, as suggested by the Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, Professor Klaus Schwab, experts in the field have gone one step further and suggested that this is not just a revolution or even a transformation. Instead, they say, the world is going through a digital mutation. Since the democratization of technology, no country, whether its in the developed world or in the emerging markets, is untouched by this digital mutation.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the key components of the new technologies that are disrupting economies, businesses, governance, job markets and leadership like never before. Explaining the scope and the impact of AI, McKinsey Global Institute says that, with available automated technologies, 1.2 billion full-time jobs equivalent and $14.6 trillion in wages are associated with activities that are automatable.

The potential for automation of work activities in Saudi Arabia is 46 percent, says the Institute. The percentage of work activities that face automation is 47.3 percent in the UAE, 46.8 percent in Oman, 46.1 percent in Bahrain and 41.1 percent in Kuwait, it adds. Outside the region, these percentages are 45.8 percent for the United States, 42.8 percent in the United Kingdom, 47.9 percent in Germany, 43.1 percent in France, 55.7 percent in Japan, 51.2 percent in China and 51.8 percent in India, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.

Globally, an average of 40 percent of the work has a potential of being automated, thanks to the progress in AI in the past decade. Of course, this means a massive exodus of the workforce from the economies around the world, which is a huge threat.

Both governments and businesses have to move fast to come up with effective policies and strategies to minimize the impact of AI on human capital. However, the governments and the businesses in the Middle East may heave a sigh of relief as the willingness to adopt the latest digital technologies, AI and robotics is higher in emerging markets compared to some developed economies.

Global consulting firm PwC conducted a survey of the healthcare sector a few months ago and concluded that a majority of consumers are willing to receive care from advanced technologies, something that has the potential to transform healthcare delivery to make it better, faster and more accessible for all.

Across the Europe Middle East and Africa region, more than half of the respondents (55 percent) said they were willing to use advanced computer technology or robots with AI that can answer health questions, perform tests, make a diagnosis and recommend treatment, says PwC.

The willingness to engage with AI and robotics for healthcare needs was 85 per cent in Turkey, 66 percent in Saudi Arabia and 62 percent in the UAE. On the contrary, the same willingness was just 39 percent in the United Kingdom and 41 percent in Germany.

The PwC survey also explored the key drivers for a persons willingness or unwillingness to use an AI-enabled or robotic health procedure or service. Easier and quicker access to healthcare services (36 percent) and speed and accuracy of diagnoses (33 percent) were the primary motivators for willingness, with lack of trust in robots being able to make decisions (47 percent) and lack of the human touch (41 percent) as the primary reasons for their reluctance. Although percentages varied across countries, these top two advantages and disadvantages were cited in this order across all countries with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where respondents felt the lack of human touch was the biggest disadvantage.

Dr Tim Wilson, Middle East Health Industries Leader, PwC, says: Whether we like it or not, AI and robotics are the future of healthcare and the Middle East is poised to take advantage. Access to quality, affordable healthcare and good health for everyone are the ultimate goals of all health systems, including in the Middle East. And when you combine clinical workforce shortages in the Middle East with more positive factors, such as a young, digitally minded population that, according to our survey, is willing to adopt AI and robotics, PwC thinks the Middle East could leapfrog other countries in these technologies.

Challenges for governments

The US administration under former President Barack Obama identified several challenges posed by advancing AI and automation technologies in a report titled AI, Automation and the Economy. The White House report, released last year, says: AI-driven automation will continue to create wealth and expand the American economy in the coming years, but, while many will benefit, that growth will not be costless and will be accompanied by changes in the skills that workers need to succeed in the economy, and structural changes in the economy. Aggressive policy action will be needed to help Americans who are disadvantaged by these changes and to ensure that the enormous benefits of AI and automation are developed by and available to all.

The challenges faced by Americans in the near-term wont be any different from that confronting the Saudi workforce in the wake of incorporating AI to improve productivity and efficiency.

Governments and businesses have to take a holistic view of AI and automation, because its not just one technology, but a conglomerate of several technologies. Moreover, their application differs from industry to industry.

One of the biggest challenges before governments, including those in the Middle East, is rolling out effective yet evolutionary policies and regulations to realize the full potential of new technologies. According to Accenture, AI – if tamed will boost economies. The firm notes: Accenture analyzed 12 developed economies and found that AI has the potential to double their annual economic growth rates by 2035. To avoid missing out on this opportunity, policymakers and business leaders must prepare for, and work toward, a future with AI. They must do so not with the idea that AI is simply another productivity enhancer; rather, they must see AI as the tool that can transform our thinking about how growth is created.

Traditional economists who see GDP growth in terms of labor and capital have painted a grim picture of the future, but Accenture begs to differ. It says: The key is to see AI as a capital-labor hybrid. AI can replicate labor activities at much greater scale and speed, and even perform some tasks beyond the capabilities of humans. Not to mention that in some areas it has the ability to learn faster than humans, if not yet as deeply. For example, by using virtual assistants, 1,000 legal documents can be reviewed in a matter of days instead of taking three people six months to complete.

Similarly, AI can take the form of physical capital such as robots and intelligent machines. And unlike conventional capital, such as machines and buildings, it can actually improve over time, thanks to its self-learning capabilities, notes Accenture.

Without a doubt, the workforce in countries such as Saudi Arabia might face redundancy unless the government takes measures to build its human capital with STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) as its basis. Management leaders have predicted that future business leaders will also be technocrats.

 

Innovation required

The threat from automation and AI is real, but could be turned into an advantage if developed as a partner in growth. Also, enhanced global connectivity
has raised the awareness level of the youth worldwide.

With effective policies and a sustainable business growth environment, young Saudi software developers, engineers and data scientists would be able to push the envelope in creating new technologies and finding innovative ways to implement existing technologies.

The region has been quick to adopt technologies invented thousands of miles away, but this will be a thing of the past. The adage of innovate or perish will be applicable to all emerging economies, including Saudi Arabia. However, hopes are high with Saudis Vision 2030.

In the words of Ginni Rometty, chairwoman, president and CEO of IBM Corporation, people must have a right purpose to develop AI.

No one would understand the need of Saudis better than the Saudis themselves, hence the need for innovation and drastic changes in educating the youth at all three levels primary, secondary and higher education.

Strategies for growth

Different governments in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, could take a cue from the White House research paper, which lays out a roadmap to use AI to boost growth.

It also adds that more investments are needed to develop AI: Government has an important role to play in advancing the AI field by investing in research and development. Among the areas for advancement in AI are cyber-defense and the detection of fraudulent transactions and messages. In addition, the rapid growth of AI has also dramatically increased the need for people with relevant skills from all backgrounds to support and advance the field. Prioritizing diversity and inclusion in STEM fields and in the AI community specifically, in addition to other possible policy responses, is a key part in addressing potential
barriers stemming from algorithmic bias.

About the training of workers, the White House report notes: As AI changes the nature of work and the skills demanded by the labor market, workers will need to be prepared with the education and training that can help them continue to succeed.

Delivering this education and training will require significant investments. Also, policymakers should ensure that workers and job seekers are both able to pursue the job opportunities for which they are best qualified and best positioned, to ensure they receive an appropriate return for their work in the form of rising wages.

 

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