The combined value of five major giga projects – NEOM, Qiddiya, Red Sea Global, ROSHN and Diriyah – is expected to exceed $1 trillion at completion, despite the recently announced recalibration of some projects, Fitch Ratings said in a report. 

However, roughly $115 billion of giga-project contracts have been awarded since 2019, it said.

“We estimate about half of their total funding, including debt and capital, has been financed by the Public Investment Fund. Recourse to bank borrowing is low but has been increasing,” the rating agency said.

Fitch estimates that bank financing to giga projects was a modest 5-7 percent of average sector loans at end-2025.  

“We expect banks’ giga-project financing to rise as projects approach operational phases and financing can be supported by cash flows.”

New project awards fell by almost 50 percent in 2025, but the value of contracts awarded since 2022 is about $435 billion, providing significant business opportunities for banks.

Delays in giga-project execution or substantial recalibration of their scale could affect the banking sector’s asset-quality metrics in the longer term, the report said.

However, current low exposure means the projects are unlikely to lead to significant increases in system-wide Stage 2 and Stage 3 loan ratios in 2026-2027.

Fitch expects financing requirements for broader Vision 2030 projects to translate into sustained strong bank loan growth, despite the announced recalibration. 

“This will, in turn, drive greater diversification of Saudi banks’ funding sources, underpinning further growth of Saudi Arabia’s debt capital markets, including international issuance,” it added.

(Editing by Anoop Menon) (anoop.menon@lseg.com)

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