In Tunisia, 71% of climate-related GDP losses by 2050 will be due to water shortages

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In Tunisia, 71% of climate-related GDP losses by 2050 will be due to water shortages, according to the World Bank’s Tunisia Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), published ahead of COP28.

The report estimates that "inaction could result in GDP losses of up to 3.4% by 2030, amounting to annual losses of about 5.6 billion dinars ($1.8 billion)."

"Water scarcity, coastal erosion and flooding would reduce real GDP by 3.4% in 2030 if nothing is done. Annual losses would reach 6.4% of GDP in 2050, or 10.4 billion dinars (USD 3.4 billion) in net present value terms. Much of these losses are due to the impact of water scarcity. As a result, the agricultural sector would be particularly hard hit, with its value added expected to fall by 15% by 2030 (and by 29% by 2050).

The WB points out that in the six countries where National Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) were drawn up (Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco), climate-related losses in GDP are expected to be between 1.1% and 6.6% by 2050.

The interdependence between water, energy and food production is particularly complex in the MENA region. Agriculture is a very water-intensive sector, while water supply systems (desalination, wastewater treatment, etc.) are highly energy-intensive, illustrating the close links between these different sectors.

In Tunisia, for example, agriculture is the country's biggest water-consuming sector, accounting for over 75% of total water consumption, if it is not restricted. The agricultural sector plays an important role in the national economy, accounting for 9.6% of GDP in 2022 and employing 14% of the working population in 2019.

It is also an activity that contributes to food security.

Given the importance of water use for agriculture, the CCDRs for the MENA region make two strategic recommendations, namely the replacement of fresh water by treated wastewater and increased efficiency in the use of water resources through demand-side measures, notably the modernisation of irrigation systems.

It is important to protect farmers, by revising cropping systems, adopting drought-tolerant varieties, encouraging higher value-added crops, improving irrigation technologies and using nature-based solutions.