As Oman enters the final quarter of its Tenth Five-Year Development Plan, the nation stands at a pivotal moment — reflecting on a journey marked by resilience, reform and renewal.

Launched amid the global upheaval of the Covid-19 pandemic, the plan began during a time when public health emergencies drained national resources and shuttered economic activity.

A key pillar of this commitment was the 2023 introduction of the Social Protection Fund — a landmark initiative expected to strengthen the nation's social fabric and provide a crucial buffer against future economic shocks.

Standard & Poor's recently affirmed the Sultanate of Oman's credit ratings at "BBB-" with a stable outlook. This affirmation is the direct result of ongoing, disciplined fiscal consolidation and persistent government efforts towards diversification.

S&P projects a manageable future: oil prices are expected to rise to an average of $60 per barrel, and to $65 per barrel in the Second Half of 2025.

GDP growth at constant prices is forecast at 1.7 per cent in 2024, rising to more than 2 per cent over 2025-2028. The national balance sheet is set to improve, with public debt expected to decline from 36 per cent in 2024 to 33 per cent in 2028.

Moreover, the vital non-oil sector is projected to maintain a steady growth of about 2.9 per cent annually, underpinned by crucial investments in manufacturing and tourism. Even with a minor anticipated fiscal deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, a return to fiscal balance is expected over 2026-2028, with inflation remaining low and stable, averaging 1.5 per cent annually.

The Tenth Plan’s achievements extend beyond fiscal stability. The National Programme for Digital Transformation (Tahawul) (2021-2025) has seen remarkable progress, recording an 80-per cent increase in overall performance. The average readiness of government institutions for digital transformation now stands at 81 per cent, and digital infrastructure readiness has reached 86 per cent. Furthermore, the procedures for 96 per cent of targeted government services were simplified, a significant boon for efficiency and public service.

Equally forward-looking is the Net-Zero 3 initiative, launched in 2024. This package of projects aims to expand efforts towards achieving the 2030 targets outlined in the National Strategy for an Organised Transition to Net-Zero. It champions energy efficiency, the adoption of electric vehicles, biofuel and afforestation, all while emphasising sustainable green cities, urban planning and infrastructure development.

The hard-hit tourism sector has experienced a robust resurgence, now attracting nearly 4 million visitors annually. The iconic khareef season in Dhofar Governorate has surpassed a milestone, recording over one million visitors for two consecutive years — a powerful indicator of restored confidence and successful promotion.

The recent CBO Financial Stability Report serves as a timely caution: despite notable diversification progress, the country retains a heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. A prolonged decline in oil prices could still adversely affect fiscal and external balances, threatening macroeconomic stability. The global financial environment remains fragile, beset by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe, and elevated trade policy uncertainty — factors that could dampen global growth projections.

This recognition of both strength and vulnerability provides the context for the imminent Eleventh Five-Year Development Plan (2026–2030). This next phase marks a major strategic shift toward decentralised and regionally balanced growth, directly translating the ambitions of Oman Vision 2040 into actionable, region-specific programmes.

Despite these formidable challenges, Oman, in concert with its GCC partners, remained steadfast in its commitment to economic diversification, social welfare and fiscal discipline.

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