Fuel prices in Kenya will surge from midnight, with diesel rising by a record Ksh40.30 ($0.31) per litre, underscoring the region’s exposure to global supply shocks.

 

The increase, driven by higher international prices and shipping costs linked to the US-Israel war on Iran, will push diesel to Ksh206.84 ($1.60) per litre in Nairobi. Petrol will rise by Ksh28.69 ($0.22) to Ksh206.97 ($1.60).

Kerosene will remain unchanged at Ksh152.78 ($1.18), cushioned by a subsidy of Ksh99.16 ($0.77) per litre.

The adjustments come despite government support, including subsidies of Ksh20.30 ($0.16) on diesel and Ksh4.92 ($0.04) on petrol, and a temporary reduction in value added tax from 16 percent to 13 percent.“Effectively, the value added tax rate on super petrol, diesel and kerosene has been reduced from 16 percent to 13 percent in order to cushion consumers from the high landed cost of petroleum products as a result of the escalated prices in the international market,” said Joseph Oketch, acting director-general of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra).

Global shockThe spike reflects sharp increases in landed costs, the combined price of fuel and shipping.

Diesel imports rose by 68.72 percent to $1,073.82 per cubic metre, while petrol increased by 41.53 percent to $823.87. Kerosene recorded the steepest jump, up 105.15 percent to $1,311.93.

The surge is linked to disruptions in the Middle East, where Iran has targeted regional refineries and blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about a quarter of global fuel supplies.

Brent crude has climbed above $100 (about Ksh12,930) per barrel, while insurance and freight costs have also risen sharply.

The price jump is expected to feed into inflation and raise the cost of living, as higher fuel costs pass through to transport, manufacturing and electricity generation.

Kenya’s inflation rate edged up to 4.4 percent last month from 4.3 percent in February, and could rise further if global prices remain elevated.

The increase also comes amid efforts by Nairobi to manage price volatility under its Government-to-Government fuel import deal.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi said a high-cost petrol cargo imported outside the framework, priced at Ksh198,000 ($1,531) per metric tonne, had been excluded from the latest pricing formula. Its inclusion would have added about Ksh14 ($0.11) per litre to pump prices.

The latest adjustments highlight East Africa’s dependence on imported fuel and vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, particularly those affecting key maritime routes.

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