How Africa pays the price of disruptions at Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez ?

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More than 1,200 cargo vessels carrying goods worth about $125 billion remain stranded following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest energy corridors.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) warned on Tuesday that even if shipping resumes immediately, more than 100 days of disruption have already triggered economic consequences that will outlive the conflict itself.

A separate report by global insurer Allianz Commercial highlights not only the impact of higher oil prices but also the cascading effects that rising shipping costs, disrupted logistics and volatile freight rates will have on inflation, food security, industrial production and public finances in economies already operating with limited fiscal buffers.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of globally traded crude oil and liquefied natural gas. It is the principal gateway through which Gulf energy exports reach global markets.

When conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted shipping through the corridor, the immediate focus was on crude oil prices. But Unctad argues that energy markets tell only part of the story.

Higher fuel prices ripple through every sector of the economy. Transport becomes more expensive and fertiliser costs rise. Manufacturers pay more for energy and imported inputs, farmers spend more moving produce to markets, while food prices eventually increase, squeezing household incomes and complicating governments’ efforts to contain inflation.

For Eastern Africa, the risks are amplified by structural dependence on imported petroleum products.

Countries served through the ports of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam rely heavily on Gulf fuel supplies. Those imports support transport systems stretching beyond Kenya and Tanzania into Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Any prolonged disruption in Gulf shipping therefore reverberates across regional supply chains.

According to Allianz Research, vessels currently stranded in the Persian Gulf hold 29 million tonnes of cargo, while nearly 20,000 seafarers remain caught in the conflict zone awaiting security assurances before normal operations can resume.

Marine insurance remains available, but at sharply higher war-risk premiums.

Yet Allianz argues that insurance is no longer the industry’s greatest concern.

Instead, shipping companies are confronting a new operating environment in which geopolitical uncertainty increasingly outweighs traditional maritime risks such as machinery failure, collisions or fire.“Our analysis shows the shipping industry has undergone a fundamental transformation. Resilience, geopolitics and efficiency must now be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world,” said Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund.

African impactThat transformation has direct implications for African trade.

The Gulf crisis follows nearly three years of instability in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial vessels by Yemen’s Houthi movement have fundamentally altered global shipping patterns.

According to Allianz, Suez Canal traffic has fallen by about 70 percent since late 2023 as shipping companies diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Traffic around Africa’s southern coast has simultaneously increased by 250 percent, extending voyages by more than a week, increasing fuel consumption and reducing vessel availability.

The additional costs eventually feed into freight rates.

For import-dependent African economies, that translates into higher prices for virtually everything, from fuel and pharmaceuticals to machinery, wheat, fertiliser and consumer goods.

The disruption also illustrates Africa’s paradoxical position in global trade.

Although the continent sits astride some of the world’s most important maritime routes, it remains highly vulnerable to decisions made elsewhere.

Today, vessels increasingly bypass the Suez Canal and instead navigate around Southern Africa. While that increases maritime traffic around the Cape, it also stretches shipping schedules, delays container availability and creates congestion across global logistics networks.

The Allianz report raises another concern that could reshape international commerce for decades. It warns that proposals to impose transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz risk creating a dangerous precedent, turning strategic waterways into commercial toll corridors rather than internationally protected navigation routes.

Policy challengeFor Eastern Africa, that warning carries particular significance.

If transit fees were eventually extended to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the narrow gateway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — the cost of shipping cargo into East African ports would rise even further. Such a development would fundamentally alter the economics of regional trade.

Shippers Council of Eastern Africa CEO Ogambi Agayo said the consequences are already becoming evident. Cargo delays in the Persian Gulf are disrupting supplies while escalating insurance premiums continue to drive up freight costs.“These additional costs eventually find their way to African consumers,” he said.

Mr Agayo argued that Africa can no longer treat maritime disruptions as temporary shocks. Instead, governments should prepare for an era in which geopolitical instability becomes a recurring feature of international shipping.

The region’s dependence on imported petroleum products means every disruption in the Gulf immediately affects transport costs, industrial production and household budgets.

Port congestion further compounds the challenge.

Longer voyages reduce vessel availability, while delayed cargo creates storage bottlenecks that increase logistics costs across regional supply chains.

Unctad reaches a similar conclusion, arguing that reopening the Strait of Hormuz will provide immediate relief but will not reverse the wider economic damage already embedded in global supply chains.

Shipping networks require months, not weeks, to recover. Containers must be repositioned, schedules rebuilt and congestion gradually cleared. As a result, freight rates often remain elevated long after oil prices stabilise.

Kenya Ships Agents Association CEO Elijah Mbaru said this explains why consumers frequently continue paying higher prices even after the original crisis has faded.“International energy prices can adjust relatively quickly, but shipping and supply chains require much longer to recover. The region will continue experiencing delays in container movement and longer shipping routes even after the immediate crisis subsides,” he said.

Long-term resilienceFor African policymakers, the reports carry uncomfortable lessons.

Many countries continue to rely on imported fuel while maintaining limited strategic petroleum reserves.

Manufacturing sectors remain dependent on imported industrial inputs, while regional supply chains remain underdeveloped. Consequently, external disruptions quickly translate into domestic inflation.

The reports also reinforce the importance of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Greater regional manufacturing capacity, stronger intra-African trade and more diversified supply chains would reduce dependence on vulnerable international shipping corridors.

Investment in ports, railways, storage facilities and logistics infrastructure would similarly improve resilience against future shocks.

Yet such reforms require long-term planning and significant capital investment.

For now, households remain exposed. Higher fuel prices increase transport fares, more expensive freight raises food prices, and manufacturers pass rising production costs on to consumers.

Governments spend more on fuel imports while collecting less revenue from slowing economic activity.

The Gulf conflict has therefore become more than a Middle Eastern security crisis. It is another reminder that Africa’s economic fortunes remain deeply tied to geopolitical events far beyond its shores.

The Allianz and Unctad reports reach the same conclusion: The era when maritime disruptions could be dismissed as temporary interruptions has ended. For Africa, repeated disruptions at Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal may become the new normal.

The challenge for policymakers is no longer how to respond to the latest shipping crisis.

It is how to build economies resilient enough to withstand the next one.