Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is turning his attention to two issues central to the country’s future – the Nile and access to the Red Sea – after consolidating domestic support through elections.

This week, the National Elections Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) delivered a result that many had anticipated: a landslide victory for the ruling Prosperity Party.

The party won 438 of the 547 seats in the House of People’s Representatives, well above the 274 required for a majority. The result gives the party a supermajority of more than 90 percent. Smaller parties secured 19 seats, although elections could not be held in large parts of Tigray and Amhara, and in some areas of Oromia.

The broader significance of the vote lies in what it means for Abiy’s agenda. Ahead of polling, the Prime Minister framed the election as both a consolidation of domestic support and a mandate to pursue key foreign policy priorities, notably protecting Ethiopia’s interests in Nile waters and securing maritime access.“We will not see the Ethiopia of yesterday in the next five years,” he said after voting on June 2.“What is needed is not resentment or bickering, but service; not competition, but results; not empty words, but action. It will require us to work harder than we have, strive more than we have laboured, think beyond what we have imagined, and add more than we have summed up.”

Dr Gedion Timothewos, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, said Addis Ababa intends to use its domestic support to advance both internal reforms and foreign policy objectives, which he described as “mutually reinforcing dimensions of state-building”.“The overwhelming majority of Ethiopians reject violence as a means of advancing political objectives,” he told Chatham House on June 17.“The position of the silent majority that has been demonstrated through the electoral process will now be further reinforced through the outcome of the national dialogue process.”Sea accessFor Ethiopia, foreign policy priorities broadly mirror trends across the region: more trade and integration with neighbours, peaceful coexistence and collaboration on shared challenges such as climate change.

Two pillars stand out. The first is access to the Red Sea, which Addis Ababa describes as a ‘logic of connectivity’. The second is the Nile, viewed through the principle of ‘equitable use’ of shared resources.“This is not a new aspiration. It is a structural issue that affects trade, logistics, energy security, and long-term economic planning. Ethiopia’s position is straightforward,”Dr Gedion said during a public lecture on ‘Foreign Policy Priorities in a Contested Neighbourhood’.“Access to maritime routes is a matter of national development and regional interdependence. It should not be framed as confrontation. It should be framed as necessity.”Ethiopia says it is pursuing maritime access through dialogue, mutual benefit and regional stability, arguing that sea access is critical to both regional integration and its own economic security.

That position has nevertheless unsettled neighbours. Previous efforts to secure maritime access strained relations with both Eritrea and Somalia. A 2024 agreement to lease a coastal strip in Somaliland triggered a diplomatic crisis after the breakaway region said Addis Ababa had promised sovereign recognition.

Turkey later mediated between Ethiopia and Somalia, helping restore diplomatic ties. Somaliland, however, continues to pursue independence and was recognised by Israel in December despite protests from Mogadishu.

Without naming specific countries, Dr Gedion suggested that opposition to Ethiopia’s position stems from misperceptions.“Unfortunately, discussions surrounding maritime access have at times been interpreted through the lens of historical suspicion rather than future opportunity.”“Some regional actors have viewed Ethiopia’s renewed articulation of its economic and strategic needs with concern. We believe such concerns can and should be addressed through dialogue.”Nile stakesAbiy’s government presents these ambitions as part of a longer Ethiopian tradition of self-reliance, Pan-Africanism and international relevance.

Ethiopia’s victory over Italy at Adwa preserved its sovereignty during the colonial era. It became the only African member of the League of Nations, the flawed precursor of the United Nations, and later a founding member of the Organisation of African Unity, the predecessor of today’s African Union.

Yet maintaining internal cohesion has often proved difficult. Over the past six decades, the imperial system collapsed, Eritrea seceded and the long-running TPLF-led coalition was removed from power. Civil wars and devastating famines have punctuated that history.

Today, Addis Ababa argues that unresolved domestic tensions are increasingly shaped by wider geopolitical competition affecting trade, security, investment and regional alliances.“We are pursuing an ambitious domestic transformation and prosperity agenda that requires navigating the challenging regional and global environment,” Dr Gedion said.

The Nile remains one of the most contentious issues in Ethiopia’s foreign relations. Addis Ababa financed and built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) largely from domestic resources. The project is expected to transform power generation in Ethiopia but remains a source of tension with Egypt, which sees it as a potential threat to its water security.

“This principle has remained constant across successive governments and political regimes. It informed Ethiopia’s successful defence of its independence at Adwa, and it informs our commitment to transformative national projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which many Ethiopians regard as a modern expression of that same determination and collective purpose we demonstrated at Adwa.”Adwa, in present-day Tigray, was the site of Emperor Menelik II’s victory over Italian forces in March 1896, a battle that preserved Ethiopia’s sovereignty.

Despite the electoral mandate, Ethiopia continues to face internal security concerns. Addis Ababa argues that the TPLF remains an existential challenge and alleges that the group’s recent rearmament, supported by foreign actors, risks “reversing gains that were achieved through difficult negotiations and significant sacrifice”.

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