10 October 2007

BEIRUT: Even as Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir tries to pursue the Church's traditionally weighty role in the country's politics, the influence of his post has dwindled in comparison to previous prelates, a number of analysts told The Daily Star on Tuesday.

Other patriarchs failed to force their chosen candidates into the presidency, but Sfeir leads a Maronite community whose numbers are shrinking as a share of the total populace and whose members have split into mutually hostile pro-government and opposition camps, the analysts said. Sfeir has arranged meetings on Thursday and Friday with rival Christian leaders to search for an exit from the impasse over the presidency, but the feuding factions have made little progress with about six weeks before the  post becomes vacant.

Compared to former Maronite leaders, "the role of Patriarch Sfeir is much weaker," said Oussama Safa, general director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. "The Maronites are weak. They are a minority. They are divided among themselves."

Tensions have run high for almost a year between Christians aligned with the ruling, Western-backed March 14 coalition, such as the Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges Party, and the Christians grouped largely around the Hizbullah-led opposition's Free Patriotic Movement, led by MP Michel Aoun.

"In principle, the same power is there" at the top of the Church hierarchy, said Chafik Masri, professor of international law at AUB and elsewhere. "But ... the change is the severe rivalry between the Maronite politicians themselves [and] also the severe intervention of some regional influence as well."

US President George W. Bush, who last week hosted parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose nation helped found

Hizbullah, have explicitly identified Lebanon as an arena where each wishes to stamp out the other's influence.

"Compared to other patriarchs, who took important decisions and represented Lebanon in important conferences that decided the fate of Lebanon with foreign powers, I wouldn't say Sfeir compares favorably," said political analyst Simon Haddad. "I find his role more or less marginal to the political situation."

Aside from the fissure plaguing Lebanon's Maronites, Sfeir's reach has diminished as the bond between religious authority and political power has shrunk since the days when France leaned heavily on then-Patriarch Elias Houwayek in securing the French Mandate over Lebanon after World War I, added Haddad.

"We can't go back 100 years and say that religion and politics still mix today as before," Haddad said. "It's maybe not the fault of the patriarch."

Patriarchs such as Houwayek have enjoyed wide influence in Lebanon's affairs, but many have fallen short in securing the power they desired. For example, when Orthodox Christian Charles Debbas was elected head of state in 1926, Houwayek intervened and demanded the position go to a Maronite, but Debbas stayed.

Sfeir's role in this presidential campaign is "absolutely" in line with history, Safa said.

"This is an extension of a habit, of a custom," Safa added. "He's trying to put the Maronite house in order."

"The Maronite patriarch through history is always involved in the sociopolitical life and development of the country," Masri said. "After independence, that role was or

has been played" by most of the patriarchs.

Another constant pattern has been the resistance of Maronite politicians to bow to the patriarchs' wishes, Haddad said. The politicians, in fact, have long pushed to limit the Church's sway, he added.

"It has been a trend for Maronite leaders to [weaken] as much as possible the influence of Bkirki," Haddad added. "It has been their goal to marginalize the patriarch."

For instance, then-Patriarch Paul Butros Meouchi wanted then-President Bechara al-Khoury to occupy the post again in 1958, but Fouad Chehab became the president. Meouchi then favored Suleiman Franjieh in 1964, only to see Charles Helou ascend to the state's highest office.

Khoury, Lebanon's first post-independence president, had a stormy relationship with the clergy. He sent the Vatican a letter asking the pope to send Beirut Bishop Monsignor Mubarak out of Lebanon so he would stop interfering in politics.

But despite the perpetual friction between the Church and secular leaders, many Lebanese - and not just Maronites - are looking to Bkirki for guidance in escaping from the deadlock now paralyzing the country, Masri said.

The gathering could present an opportunity for the estranged political factions to begin moving toward a consensus candidate, but it could also be a forum for the patriarch to take a clear stand on how the presidential conundrum should be solved, Masri added.

"I think that this attempt should have been done in an earlier period, but now [it's] better than nothing," Masri said.

"Whether this or that, the patriarch has to express his word," he added. "The people are expecting a certain final word from the patriarch."