Jul 04, 2013

AMMAN -- Leadership change in Cairo won't fix the shortage of gas supplies from Egypt to Jordan, economists said Thursday.

The analysts said in separate interviews with The Jordan Times that ousting Islamist president Mohamed Morsi by the army may improve political ties between Amman and Cairo but would not bring anything new to the issue of gas supplies as Egypt is struggling with its own energy woes.

Political and economic analyst Zayyan Zawaneh said Egypt is currently facing domestic shortages in gas and petrol stocks.

"Regardless of who is ruling in Cairo, the gas issue will continue to be volatile because Egypt has its own energy shortages," Zawaneh said, adding that Jordan may even face uncertainty in gas supplies from Egypt in the coming period as the unrest-hit country suffers from various political, social and economic challenges.

"It would be naïve for Jordan to pin hopes on the upcoming Egyptian interim government to improve gas supplies to the Kingdom," the analyst said, criticising authorities for failing to secure alternative gas suppliers for over two years.

Since the first blast of the pipeline providing Jordan with gas some two years ago, officials should have worked to diversify energy sources in order not to depend on a country hit with political instability, Zawaneh said.

Musa Saket, board member of the Jordan Chamber of Industry, expressed hope that the current levels of supply of Egypt's natural gas, which currently stands at around 100 million cubic metres a day, would not see a decline as authorities in Cairo are struggling to meet the rising demand of the Egyptian people and industries.

"Although Egypt is a natural gas producer, it is facing the same energy challenges of Jordan," Saket said.

Economist Khalid Dajani said the coming interim government in Egypt will be busy working to find solutions to their domestic political and economic problems, ruling out any possibility that officials there will rank the issue of gas supplies to Jordan as a priority under such unstable conditions.

However, Dajani noted that Egyptian officials may review the gas supply agreement with Jordan not to address quantity issues but to ask for higher prices to pump more revenues into the country's fragile budget. 

© Jordan Times 2013