04 April 2007

BEIRUT: Preliminary poll data from a Beirut-based report published in the Sunday Telegraph was met with skepticism here on Tuesday over claims that Islamic fundamentalism was a factor for Maronite migration. Residents and academics agreed that a stagnant economy remained the driving force for Lebanese emigration.

But according to an article in the London Sunday Telegraph, Islamic fundamentalism is an equally motivating factor for Maronites leaving the country.

"Christians are fleeing Lebanon to escape political and economic crises and signs that radical Islam is on the rise in the country," said the article, quoting an unreleased poll by the Beirut-based Information International publication.

"Many who remain fear that a violent showdown between rival Sunni and Shiite factions is looming," the British daily reported, again quoting Information International.

A representative for Information International refused comment on the Sunday Telegraph article, saying only that the poll would be published at the end of April. It remains unclear how the publication collected data for the article or how many people were polled.

The article acknowledges that a desire to migrate seems to be one thing that unites people across the sectarian divide.

"Some 22 percent of Shiites and 26 percent of Sunnis say they are considering going abroad," the article said, once more quoting the poll data.

"Lebanon has always been a bastion of religious tolerance, but now it is moving toward the model of Islamization seen in Iraq and Egypt," Father Samir Samir, a Jesuit teacher of Islamic Studies at Beirut's Universit? Saint-Joseph, told the Sunday Telegraph.

"Christine, another Christian woman, said that all of her family's younger generation had left the country, adding that Tripoli had become increasingly Islamized in recent years. There is a rising number of veiled women and religiously bearded men on the streets - although she blamed economic and political instability for much of the emigration," the article said.

However, those interviewed by The Daily Star on Tuesday said a stagnant economy and too few jobs were the main reasons for migration.

"It is true that children want to leave, but it has nothing to do with religion," said Antoine Corm, who owns a small convenience store in Achrafieh.

"My son finished school and didn't find work here, so now he's just having fun until his visa for Saudi Arabia goes through," he added.

"I'm Maronite, but the problem isn't religious, it's national. We don't know what's going to happen. It has everything to do with money," Corm added.

"I'm a Sunni. I want to leave too," said Rashid Allemeddin, a customer who overheard the conversation. "Both my kids are in Australia. If I could follow them I would."

Eugene Sensenig-Dabbous, a professor at Notre Dame University and co-author of a 64-page report, entitled "Insecurity, Migration and Return: The Case of Lebanon Following the Summer 2006 War," expressed hesitation over the findings cited in Sunday's article.

For Sensenig-Dabbous, who has not seen the Information International report, the reasons that Lebanese of any faith leave their country are political and economic instability, although he said Christians have an easier time settling elsewhere.

"Christians can choose from a huge network of opportunities for travel. There is a pull factor. Lebanese Christians abroad are established, so it's easier for the Christians to emigrate. But the push factor, what is driving them out, is the same for everyone," he said.

"The well established networks play into their migration," Sensenig-Dabbous said. "Christians have been emigrating since the 1880s. Massive Muslim emigration began during the [1975-1990] Civil War."

The first wave of Lebanese emigrants was made up of Christians who did not wish to fight under the Ottoman Army and looked for opportunities abroad, he explained.

Sensenig-Dabbous also disputed a claim in the Sunday Telegraph article that 100,000 Maronites "have submitted visa applications to foreign embassies," and argued that he knew personally that such a figure was impossible to attain from "stubborn" embassies.

A secretary for the Maronite patriarch also denied that religious factors were pushing Maronites out of Lebanon.

"We Maronites aren't afraid. We've had problems in the past and we stayed and we will this time too," Father Michel Awit told The Daily Star, adding that "the study is wrong."

Raja, 18, said that he was in the middle of applying to colleges in the United States, where he would live with his uncle.

"I'm going to Kuwait Thursday to visit my dad," the young Druze said. "He's been working there over 15 years. I'm filling out my applications to the US, and I don't think I want to come back. Most of my friends are leaving, from all religions."