Amid volatility in the region, Iran's nuclear project has come to the fore again. Clandestine discussions between Tehran and Washington took place lately as Paris hosted Iranian-American intelligence meetings.
While President Obama opposes Iran's calling the United State the great Satan, he seeks to cut a deal with Tehran as part of his bid to get re-elected. According to the deal, Iran has agreed to freeze its nuclear program and start negotiations with the P5 plus one. Prime minister of Turkey conveyed this message. Although the protocol meeting was supposed to be convened in Turkey -- thus boosting Turkey's morale -- Tehran is adamant to hold the meeting in Baghdad under its sponsorship.
Iran has a lot of concerns. Iranian leaders fear that the explosion at the Iranian street cannot be countered with a security crackdown this time. Additionally, a possible exit of Assad from Syria would push Iran to face new domestic and external challenges. For this reason, Tehran has tried to consolidate the position of Assad as much as possible by creating fears among the Russian leadership that the downfall of Assad can be a precursor to instability in Moscow.
Iran had to comply with the demands of America to avert an Israeli scheme of a preemptive strike next May. On the other hand, the United States has some misgivings as to the impact of an Israeli strike on the American elections. Also, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been looking for a pretext to boost his chances in the upcoming presidential elections. A successful intervention could help him prevail over his competitors. This is true as some French political forces are convinced that the French role in Libya will have some negative impact in the near future.
On its part, Tehran realizes that Sarkozy is in bad need of some success and media attention. The massacre of Toulouse came to stir some anti-Muslims sentiments in France. Damascus has sent Paris some intelligence information on the terrorist networks and therefore France is inclined toward a more benign approach with regard to the Syrian crisis.
As we argued before, the Israeli position has undergone some changes and that the media war will not peak. Some Italian sources confirmed that Tel Aviv approved the American-European scheme to prevent Iran from developing nuclear arms. It transpired that Iran would agree on an agreement that stipulates that Iran would not enrich uranium beyond levels that allows Iran to go nuclear.
Of course this will be revealed in negotiations. But what is new is that Iran had already caved in secretly. We all know that both Damascus and Tehran work with a bazaar or business-like mentality. And yet the question revolves around the Syrian people and the victims. Why has Iran adopted this position through the supreme leader who was asked to confirm that the Iranian project is peaceful?
The Israeli prime minister was fully acquainted with the details of the Iranian position. For this reason, Netanyahu agreed to give Iran a grace period during which Iran will negotiate. However, he stipulated that in case of failure in talks or in case Iran resorts to deception, the United States would not oppose any Israeli strike. In this case the United States will take responsibility, even though the negotiations are expected to reach a dead end, We all know that since the two-pillar policy of the United States in the Gulf region, the United States has been playing up on perpetuating the Gulf fears. In this way, the United States stands to benefit.
All practical indicators show that Assad has become something of the past. Syrian people feel the heat because of the continuous crackdown and Tehran's support for the Syrian regime. The Iranian role in Syria is so obvious that some military units are divided on this issue. This is true especially after the opposition managed to capture some elements from the Jerusalem Battalion and some Iranian pilots. They are also convinced that Assad would circumvent Annan's plan and continue bloodshed.
What is taking place in Iraq suggest that it is the lull before the storm. There is a national consensus about the need to end the Iranian control on Iraqi political decision. Also the Shiite institutions are not happy with the obvious Iranian domination. This indeed entailed the Jerusalem battalion to use force against some references to guarantee their silence toward the possibility of appointing a member of the council for the expediency of the regime instead of Ali Sistani. Also Iran pushed Nuri Al-Maliki to supply Assad with money and arms.
Masud Barzani's statement against Maliki underscores some bitter feelings about the new dictatorship in Iraq. Barzani clarified that Maliki has a monopoly over power. Also Tariq Hashemi during a tour of some Arab countries warned that Iran is in complete control of Baghdad. In juxtaposition with that are the statements from Izat Al Dori about the need to liberate Iraq from the Persian control.
The above-mentioned changes indicate that the region will witness some important changes. This what pushed Iran to offer concessions? A few days ago, Rafsanjani talked about the need to rebuild relations with the GCC and particularly with Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Ahmed Khamenei expressed his outrage against Saudi Arabia. Based on my experience, Iran seeks to provoke Riyadh to be irrational. Riyadh however realized the Iranian ploy and is most likely to stay cool and will keep conducting its foreign policy away for outbidding. Unlike Iran that tried to blackmail India, China, and Russia, the Kingdom is driven by morals and ethics, which brought respect.
© Arab News 2012
