Tuesday, Mar 12, 2013
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Futures: BUND GILT EURIBOR SHORT STG
Jun Jun Sep Mar
Previous Close 142.52 116.01 99.765 99.560
3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Range
Weekly Trend Bearish Bullish Bullish Bullish
3rd Resistance 143.56 116.78 99.815 99.610
2nd Resistance 143.45 116.47 99.800 99.580
1st Resistance 143.00 116.17 99.780 99.570
Pivot* 142.58 115.99 99.765 99.553
1st Support 142.27 115.39 99.735 99.510
2nd Support 141.75 114.98 99.710 99.490
3rd Support 141.18 114.80 99.680 99.480
Intraday BUND: Last Friday's low at 142.27 is under threat, as resistance at 143.00 remains resolute. A push below 142.27 is expected in the coming sessions, strengthening the Mar. 4 peak at 143.96 and attracting a fresh wave of weakness to 141.75. Downside risk has room for the 141.18/141.25 area on concerted weakness. It would take a break above 143.00 to improve the near-term tone, opening 143.45.
Weekly chart BUND trend: Bearish.
Intraday GILT: Closing the upside gap at 115.39 remains the focus of attention. Bears have regained control of the short-term since the persistent decline from the Mar. 1 peak at 117.67 left a bearish dark cloud cover candle last week, and further weakness below 115.39 towards a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 114.98 cannot be ruled out. However, a full retracement to the Feb. 20 reaction low at 113.91 would only be signalled on a clean break below 114.80. A recovery above Monday's high at 116.17 would provide temporary respite, but corrective gains would have to force a break above 116.47 in order to lift the tone.
Weekly chart GILT trend: Bullish.
Intraday EURIBOR September 2013: Last Friday's low at 99.735 will remain vulnerable while resistance at 99.780 caps the upside. The broader bear wave from the Mar. 1 peak at 99.815 has room for an extension lower to 99.710, although strong backup support at 99.680 limits scope for downside risk. A push above 99.780 would strengthen the 99.735 low and question the bearish outlook, opening 99.800 and the 99.815 peak.
Weekly chart EURIBOR trend: Bullish.
Intraday SHORT STERLING March 2014: Monday's strength puts pressure on the key 99.570/99.580 resistance area. However, an upside break is not expected at this stage, establishing a trading range between 99.570/99.580 resistance and last Friday's low at 99.510. The 99.510 low would only be strengthened on a break above 99.580, that would then pave the way for a full retracement to the Mar. 1 contract high at 99.610.
Weekly chart SHORT STG trend: Bullish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-03-13 0710GMT
