Doha – Qatar: Qatar’s growth momentum is expected to remain intact in H2-2025, supported by robust public investment and a continued commitment to economic diversification, according to Standard Chartered’s latest report, Global Focus – Economic Outlook H2-2025.

While Standard Chartered’s global growth has been revised slightly to 3.1% from 3.2% earlier in the year, due to ongoing trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, Qatar and the broader Middle East region continue to stand out for their resilience and forward-looking policy agenda.

The report maintains its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar at 4.0%, while raising the 2026 forecast to 5.5% (from 4.0% previously), reflecting increased confidence in the timeline for gas output expansion and LNG export growth. This revised outlook is above the average market expectation of 5.2% and slightly below the IMF’s 5.6%. The report sees Qatar’s real GDP per capita rising to approximately USD 110,000 by 2026, a level that supports the country’s transition toward developed-market status and potential inclusion in various emerging market indices.

The non-hydrocarbon sector, accounting for over 60% of GDP, is also expected to be a key growth driver in H2-2025, led by tourism, financial services, and trade. Non-hydrocarbon growth picked up notably in Q4-2024 to 6.1% y/y, the fastest pace in the GCC. Standard Chartered highlights the positive impact of new public-private partnership (PPP) legislation, which is likely to encourage greater private sector participation and enhance infrastructure development across the country.

While the US economy shows signs of slowing in H2, due to higher tariffs, weakening sentiment, and constrained fiscal support, and China’s export momentum fades following a strong first half, Europe faces recession risks as trade negotiations with the US remain unresolved. Against this backdrop, Qatar stands out for its resilience, underpinned by a low fiscal breakeven oil price and a long-term commitment to economic diversification in line with Qatar National Vision 2030 (QNV 2030).

Muhannad Mukahall, Chief Executive Officer and Head of Coverage, Standard Chartered Qatar, said: “Qatar’s long-term vision continues to set it apart in a volatile global environment. As a bank with deep roots in the region and a longstanding presence in Qatar, Standard Chartered is proud to support the country’s forward-looking policy agenda. Backed by strong fundamentals and a clear commitment to diversification, through Qatar National Vision 2030, Qatar is demonstrating how targeted reforms and strategic investments can unlock new engines of sustainable growth and keep the economy on a firm trajectory in 2025 and beyond.”
Across the MENAP region, growth is projected at 3.4% in 2025, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) benefiting from the reversal of OPEC+ production cuts and continued momentum in reform. Countries like Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are showing steady progress in non-oil sectors amid shifting global trade dynamics.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also poised to surprise on the upside, according to the report, as it is less integrated with the global economy and has reduced its export dependence on the US. The region’s performance could be further boosted by local currency strength, a steady decline in inflation, and structural reforms in key economies such as Nigeria and South Africa.

Despite global risks, including tariff uncertainty and financial market volatility, Standard Chartered sees opportunity in Qatar’s robust banking liquidity, manageable debt levels, and proactive investment in strategic sectors such as logistics, tourism, and technology.

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