• Compared to Allianz Trade’s pre-crisis forecast, the direct toll from the Middle East represents +7,000 cases for 2026 and +7,900 for 2027.
  • A prolonged conflict could push Allianz Trade’s forecast up to +10% in 2026 and +3% in 2027.

How much will the Middle East crisis increase non-payment risk for corporates? Allianz Trade releases its latest Insolvency Report, unveiling updated forecasts for 2026 and 2027. According to the world leader in trade credit insurance, global business insolvencies will rise by +6% in 2026 (+6% in 2025). This would result in a 5th consecutive year of growing insolvencies, before plateauing at a high level in 2027. However, a prolonged conflict would amplify insolvency risks.

The Middle East conflict will drive up global business insolvencies

The Middle East crisis has amplified volatility and uncertainty across energy markets, shipping costs and global supply chains. Beyond the immediate disruption, second round effects point to accelerating inflation, tighter financial conditions, and a deterioration in business confidence.

“This situation is driving up costs across global value chains, from agrifood to manufacturing, healthcare and technology. It also exacerbates pressures on energy-intensive sectors such as transportation, chemicals and metals. The combination of weaker demand, rising input costs and tighter financial conditions is straining companies with weak pricing power, thin margins, high debt levels or structurally higher working capital requirements. Compared to our pre-crisis forecast, the direct toll of the Middle East conflict will be an additional 7,000 global business insolvencies for 2026 and 7,900 for 2027”, explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.

Prolonged geopolitical and economic shocks could amplify insolvency risks

If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for longer, second-round effects could amplify with a sustained disruption of global oil and gas supply, as well as other commodity supply shortages (fertilizers, helium). This combined with rising inflation, a drop in confidence and lower growth would push up insolvency risks.

“A sustained and widespread escalation would see global insolvencies increase by +10% in 2026 and +3% in 2027. This would translate into around 4,100 additional insolvency cases in the US and 10,500 in Western Europe over the 2026–2027 period”, adds Maxime Lemerle,  Lead Analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade. 

Globally, the number of jobs at risk could increase by +94K in 2026 due to business insolvencies

With a +6% rise in global business insolvencies in 2026, Allianz Trade estimates that 2.2 million jobs would be directly at risk. This results in a +94K increase compared to 2025.

“Construction, retail and services would be the main sectors at risk. Europe, with 1.3 million people potentially affected, leads the global count. Western Europe (~960K) and North America (~460K) would both record a 12-year high. Overall, jobs at risk due to business insolvencies would represent 6% of the total number of unemployed people in the US and Europe”, ends Maxime Lemerle.

Press contact
Guglielmo Santella
+39 335 849 6775
Guglielmo.santella@allianz-trade.com

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Partner contact
Valerie Chraim
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Valerie.chraim@allianz-trade.com

About Allianz Trade

Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of surety, collections, structured trade credit and political risk. Our proprietary intelligence network is based on instant access to data of 289 million corporates. We give companies the confidence to trade by securing their payments. We compensate your company in the event of a bad debt, but more importantly, we help you avoid bad debt in the first place. Whenever we provide trade credit insurance or other finance solutions, our priority is predictive protection. But, when the unexpected arrives, our AA credit rating means we have the resources, backed by Allianz to provide compensation to maintain your business. Headquartered in Paris, Allianz Trade is present in over 40 countries with 5,900 employees. In 2025, our consolidated turnover was € 4 billion and insured global business transactions represented € 1,400 billion in exposure. For more information, please visit allianz-trade.com