That price decline came as the market takes a break after collapsing 8% on Monday despite an intradayprice spike in European gas of over 10% after Russian gas giant Gazprom
In recent weeks, U.S. gas futures have mostly risen in lockstep with the spike in global gas prices.Overseas gas prices soared to record highs as utilities in Europe and Asia scramble to refill inventories.U.S. prices jumped to their highest since 2008 a couple weeks go as competition for U.S. LNG remains strong.
But no matter how high global prices rise, U.S. LNG export plants were already operating near fullcapacity and will not be able to produce more LNG until later in the year.
And U.S. gas inventories, unlike those in Europe, were in good shape for the winter with more than enoughfuel available for the upcoming heating season.
Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will top 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winterheating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls short of the 3.7tcf five-year average.
In Europe, analysts say stockpiles are about 15% below normal for this time of year.
Front-month gas futures
Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.0 billioncubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 91.1 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthlyrecord of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Even though the weather is milder than normal, it is still turning seasonally cooler. Refinitiv projectedaverage U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 85.9 bcfd this week to 88.5 bcfd next week as morehomes and businesses turn on their heaters. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv expected on Monday.
With gas prices near $31 per mmBtu in Europe
Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in October,the same as in September, but was expected to rise in coming weeks as more liquefaction trains exitmaintenance outages.
But the United States only has capacity to turn about 10.5 bcfd of gas into LNG.
Global markets will have to wait until later this year to get more, when the sixth liquefaction train atCheniere Energy Inc's
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Oct 15 Oct 8 Oct 15 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Oct 15 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 94 81 49 69 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,463 3,369 3,919 3,612 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -4.1% -4.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2020 (2016-2020) Henry Hub
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 133 134 186 128 173 U.S. GFS CDDs 36 34 39 44 30 U.S. GFS TDDs 169 168 225 172 203
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 92.2 91.8 92.1 90.0 83.1 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.3 7.4 7.2 6.6 7.5 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 99.5 99.2 99.3 96.6 90.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.0 U.S. LNG Exports 10.6 10.8 10.8 8.1 3.7 U.S. Commercial 5.3 6.4 7.3 7.1 6.8 U.S. Residential 5.0 7.2 9.3 8.1 7.2 U.S. Power Plant 28.8 25.6 25.3 29.1 27.7 U.S. Industrial 20.8 21.3 21.4 22.6 21.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 66.4 67.1 69.8 73.3 69.6 Total U.S. Demand 85.2 85.9 88.5 89.9 80.3
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England
(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Nick Zieminski) ((firstname.lastname@example.org; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging:email@example.com))
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/pageid=usa-gasFor Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal. For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: