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* Government only wants to support "viable" jobs
* Industry and analysts warn move premature as COVID casesjump
* Unemployment seen jumping above 2.5 million by end of year
By David Milliken
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Like thousands of employers inBritain, Alison Griffin fears she could soon have to lay offmore staff at her huge events venue when the government ends itsflagship coronavirus job support programme in three weeks.
A planned Oct. 1 reopening of the sector never happenedbecause of a second coronavirus wave, and Griffin's business incentral England will get little benefit from new supportmeasures that the government wants to limit to "viable" jobs.
"It bewilders me," said Griffin, whose cavernous,glass-walled Telford International Centre has hosted medicalconferences, gymnastics tournaments and tattooing conventions,and still has bookings for 2021 and beyond.
The businesswoman cut 20 of her company's roughly 80 stafffrom the family-run business at the start of the pandemic.
Now more might follow.
Britain is acting much sooner than European counterparts inscaling back job support, forcing businesses into toughdecisions while they have little or no revenue.
As COVID cases surge again, hundreds of thousands of joblosses are likely before the end of the year, industry groupsand analysts warn.
Finance minister Rishi Sunak ripped up the economicorthodoxy of his Conservative Party at the onset of the pandemicwith his Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.
The scheme paid up to 80% of the wages of furloughed staff,at a total cost of about 50 billion pounds ($65 billion). Itbenefited around 9 million employees at its peak, cushioning theimpact of an unprecedented 20% collapse in economic output
But Sunak has warned he cannot save all jobs, and - with oneeye on record government borrowing - he will end the plan onOct. 31.
Roughly 2 million workers were receiving some help from theprogramme in September, mainly in hospitality and entertainment.
In its place, businesses will receive a 1,000 pound grantfor every employee they retain for at least three months, andthe government will top up salaries of workers who return parttime, as long as businesses contribute an equal amount.
For Griffin, this support falls far short.
She does not expect to qualify for extra aid for businessesthat must shut down completely to slow the spread of COVID-19because her 15,000 square metre venue can still host meetings ofup to 30 people, a far cry from its 12,500 capacity.
"That's like saying you'd allow a cinema to open to sellpopcorn, but not to go to a film," she said.
"Honestly, it's very disappointing"
Next month Griffin plans to bring furloughed staff backpart-time for basic maintenance work. But this is no long-termsolution. "We've made some redundancies ... and now obviouslywe're concerned we may have to do the same again in eitherDecember or January," she said.
The business previously had an annual turnover of around 9million pounds, hosting as many as 140 events a year thatbrought up to 250,000 visitors to Telford.
Now revenue has fallen almost to zero, and the business hashad to seek government-backed loans to keep going.
Attempts to adapt by promoting the venue as a space for filmshoots have borne little fruit, and Griffin envies Germany,where trade fairs have resumed under social distancing rules.
PRE-CHRISTMAS LAYOFFS
Britain is currently reporting five times as many new casesas Germany, and has Europe's highest death toll, with more than42,000 fatalities.
The challenges in Telford are mirrored across Britain, andthe events industry has written to Prime Minister Boris Johnsonwarning that 90,000 jobs are likely to go before Christmas.
For the broader hospitality sector, concerns are evengreater. Last week it warned that well over half a million joblosses were looming as the government imposed early closing onpubs and restaurants.
The Bank of England has forecast the jobless rate would hit7.5% by the end of the year and the number of people unemployedwould almost double to 2.6 million.
Official data on Tuesday showed unemployment in the threemonths to August rose to 4.5%, its highest since 2017, and therewere 227,000 redundancies, the most since 2009.
(See graphic:
Large employers looked on course to make 600,000 peopleredundant in the second half of 2020, said Tony Wilson, directorof the Institute for Employment Studies think tank, based onnotices of possible redundancies firms gave the government.
Wilson - like many analysts - thinks Sunak's recent measurescould have been better designed to limit job losses by targetingthe sectors that have found it hardest to recover from lockdown.
The new Job Support Scheme requires firms to contribute totop-up pay for workers on reduced hours, in contrast toshort-time schemes in countries such as Germany.
Sunak said he only wanted to support jobs where employerswere confident enough to take staff back part-time - with theimplication that other workers should seek new employment.
"For the employers that need this support most and that arefacing the biggest financial difficulties, they're just notgoing to be able to afford to take part," Wilson said.
Britain's government has said it expects employers to takeaccount of redundancy costs, and the expense of hiring new staffonce demand picks up, when deciding whether to use the scheme.
Low-interest government loans are available too.
This approach to weaning employers off wage support mademore sense in August and early September, when coronavirus casesremained low, job vacancies were rising and some sectors werealmost back to normal, Wilson said.
Now, many businesses with positive long-term prospects riskbeing forced into premature job cuts. "It's the second wave thathas made that strategy really risky," Wilson said.
($1 = 0.7653 pounds)
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Graphic by Andy Bruce;Reporting by David Milliken;Additional reporting by Jason Cairnduff in TELFORD, England;Editing by Andrew Cawthorne) ((david.milliken@reuters.com; +44 20 7542 5109; ReutersMessaging: david.milliken.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
