The global economy is set to experience a significant downturn this year if the Middle East conflict is not resolved soon, Qatar’s Finance Minister, Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, said on Wednesday. 

Al Kuwari said the latest oil price increases are just the “tip of the iceberg,” citing that the full economic consequences of the Iran war are likely going to hit globally by May or June 2026.

“The impact… it goes way beyond Gulf countries, even to the whole world and what we have seen so far is really the tip of the iceberg,” Al Kuwari said at the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., in a video shared on social media.

The Qatari official noted that the escalation of the conflict has forced the Gulf region to navigate intense hostility from Iran, adding that GCC states have been “caught in the middle”.

“The full-fledged impact is coming, and it’s not coming far away. I think in one month, two months’ time you’re going to see really a huge… economic impact globally as a result of this war,” Al Kuwari said.

Iran’s missile attacks have damaged Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, impacting natural gas markets around the world and driving prices higher. The country accounts for nearly 20% of global LNG exports, making the disruptions a significant threat to the world’s energy security.

(Writing by Cleofe Maceda; editing by Seban Scaria) seban.scaria@lseg.com