SOME experts have linked Nigeria’s recent rise in inflation to external shocks and domestic factors, including the removal of fuel subsidy and insecurity.

The experts made this known in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja on Wednesday, while reacting to the latest inflation figures for April.

According to them, Nigeria’s recent uptick in inflation is a combination of external shocks, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and domestic structural challenges, including the removal of fuel subsidy and persistent insecurity.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, up by 0.31 per cent from the 15.38 per cent recorded in March.

NAN reports that Nigeria’s inflation rate reversed its downward trend after 12 consecutive months and started rising again in March 2026, continuing into April.

An economist, Chidi Nwanze, said emerging global risks, especially the Middle East conflict, were increasingly shaping Nigeria’s inflation outlook in 2026.

He said the crisis had heightened uncertainty in global energy markets, disrupted supply chains and pushed up transportation and import costs, contributing to inflationary pressures recorded in April.

“Although, domestic structural issues remain the primary drivers of inflation, external shocks such as the Middle East conflict are increasingly influencing prices through higher energy costs, exchange rate pressures and rising global commodity prices.”

Nwanze also identified the removal of fuel subsidy as one of the most significant structural drivers of inflation in recent years.

“Since the removal of fuel subsidy, Nigeria has experienced a broad-based inflationary shock.

“Petrol prices surged almost immediately, triggering higher transportation costs, increased electricity tariffs and rising production expenses for businesses.

“The ripple effects quickly spread across nearly every sector of the economy,” he said.

Also, Mr Olaolu Balogun, an economist, said the latest inflationary pressure was largely driven by rising energy costs linked to the Middle East crisis.

Balogun noted that higher fuel prices had increased transport, manufacturing, logistics and import costs across the economy, adding that businesses were passing the costs on to consumers.

He, however, said that Nigeria’s inflation could ease if the ongoing Middle East crisis subsides, as this would likely lower global oil prices.

Balogun said that a decline in crude oil prices would reduce transportation and energy costs, ease pressure on imported goods and help stabilise domestic price levels.

An agro-economist, Sunday Peter, said food inflation continued to dominate Nigeria’s inflation basket due to its large weight in household consumption.

Peter said insecurity in key farming areas had disrupted agricultural production, while high transportation costs, poor storage facilities, seasonal shortages and climate-related challenges had further constrained food supply.

He added that inflation in Nigeria remained largely structural rather than temporary, citing low industrial productivity, weak electricity supply and heavy import dependence as key drivers.

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